Wednesday 3rd March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching the support area of our ascending channel at 1.200, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could see a further upside to test our resistance area at 1.2300, in line with the graphical swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the ascending trend line and support area at 1.200 which can also be found on the weekly time frame.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced nicely off our support level at 1.2000, in line with the levels found on the larger time frames. Currently, prices are approaching our resistance area at 1.21088 found on the H4 time frame, which coincides with the graphical pullback resistance area and 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break above this resistance area could see a further upside to test our next resistance target at 1.22157, in line with our graphical overlap resistance area.

Areas of consideration:

• 2000 support area found on H4 time frame
• 21088 resistance level found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are approaching our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.35000 where we could see a further downside before it reaches our support level, in line with the graphical pullback support area and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our support area at 1.37500, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and ascending trend line. Both time frames echo the same view that we could be seeing further downside before prices reach our support area.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance area at 1.40000, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see a further drop below this level to test our next support level at 1.38505, which is in line with the horizontal overlap support level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• 40000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
• 38505 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has returned back to the ascending trendline support drawn from 9th March (2020), where we witnessed  a further bounce up North away from the trendline support. On the Daily timeframe, price has closed above the ascending trendline and the Daily resistance turned-support level at 0.78053. On H4,  price has broken and retested the 0.78 major level, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and Daily resistance level. We may expect a further push upside towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap level.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 retested support zone of 0.78329, may continue bullish move towards 0.78833.
• Weekly and Daily time frame are showing bullish momentum.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is facing bullish pressure from the ascending trendline support and horizontal swing low support, towards the horizontal swing high resistance level which coincides with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are bouncing off from horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% retracement level towards the horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. On the H4, prices might either push higher to reach the daily resistance level which coincides with 127.2% fibonacci extension or pullback towards 106.054 level which is the daily support, coinciding with 61.8% fibonacci extension level, before pushing up again to reach the daily resistance target. EMA is also below prices, showing bullish pressure for price.

Areas of consideration:

• 050 resistance level on the daily and H4 time frame is a possible upside target
• On the H4, prices might first pullback to the 106.054 support level which coincides with 61.8% fibonacci extension before pushing higher towards the resistance

USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has pushed away from the descending trendline, towards its previous low. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, price has managed to reverse from the Trendline resistance, continuing its bearish momentum and may push its way down South towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. And on the H4 timeframe, price has closed under the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 1.26250, and is currently retesting the level. We may expect price to reach the 1.2579 level which consist of 88% Fibonacci

Extension, 61.8% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 may push further down South to 1.2579 level consisting of 88% Fibonacci Extension, 61.8% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
• Weekly, Daily and H4 timeframe are all showing bearish momentum.

USD/CHF:

On the weekly chart, USD/CHF is showing a strong bullish move up to test our weekly resistance level at 0.93000, which is in line with our -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the weekly descending trendline resistance as well. On the daily chart, we could potentially see more upside before price tests the weekly resistance at 0.93000, as price continues to hold above the daily ascending trendline support.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price is facing resistance at 0.91800 level, in line with our 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. We could potentially see a slight pullback to our support level at 0.90800 level, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels, before further upside to test our weekly 0.93000 resistance level. Do note that the MACD indicator is also above the 0 line, indicating bullish pressure.

Areas of consideration:

• USD/CHF is showing room for further upside on the weekly and daily charts
• Price could potentially pull back to the 0.90800 level before continuing with further bullish momentum.
• 93000 weekly resistance level is a key level to watch.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 32643 resistance and 29568 support. Despite price holding above the long term moving average, there remains no strong levels for entry for now. On the Daily, price continues to hold very strongly above ascending trendline support. With price coming back to test the ascending support at 30662, it is possible that traders could see a bounce above this support and should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum still remains strong.

On the H4, price also still holding between 32009 resistance and weekly support at 30695. Despite technical indicators calling for further bullish upside, there remains no clear levels for entry on the intraday. Traders should continue to watch resistance at 32009 and support at 30695 closely on the sidelines for any signs of market reaction.

Areas of consideration:

• Indicators remain bullish with no clear levels of entry

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold pushed lower breaking previous supports. Price has also broken below long term moving average. Price could very well ride the bearish momentum and drift lower towards 1670 support which is in line with key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On the daily chart, we see pricetrading sideways and is currently holding between 1774 resistance and 1670 support.

On the 4H timeframe price testing and reacted above 1717 support which is also in line with Key 100% Fibonacci extension level. With stochastics on support where price bounced in the past, a short term intraday bounce towards 1774 weekly resistance could be likely before seeing any chance of a drop. However, should price fail to hold above 1717 support, traders can also expect price to drop towards next weekly support at 1670 level.

Areas of consideration:

• 1717 intraday support to hold short term intraday bounce

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