USD/CHF: Scope for a substantial drop to the the 2021 lows at 0.8757 – Credit Suisse

USD/CHF is back weighing on its range lows at 0.8930/25. A move below here and then retracement support at 0.8910 is needed to reassert the downmove, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

Break below key support at 0.8930/25 and then 0.8910 to turn the risks back lower

“Despite the growing RSI divergence and daily MACD cross that is still in place, the risks seem to be building for a direct resumption of the downtrend and in any case, our broader bias stays lower whilst below 0.9071/98.” 

“A closing break below 0.8930/10, which is the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 recovery and May/June lows, would trigger a direct resumption of the core bear trend, with the next level 0.8870.”

“Bigger picture, we still see scope for a test of the 2021 lows at 0.8757.”

“First resistance is seen at 0.9012, then 0.9048/55, above which still confirm a base and open up a move back to the 200-day average at 0.9071, then 0.9098. These levels needs to cap to keep the broader, medium-term risks lower in our view, however, it’s worth noting that the potential ‘measured base objective’ projects a move well beyond here if the pattern is completed.”