GBP/USD Forecast: Brexit drama, chapter 1,623


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GBP/USD Current price: 1.3363

  • Intense Brexit negotiations continue without progress in fisheries, a level playing field.
  • EU’s chief negotiator Barnier said, “a deal hangs in the balance.”
  • GBP/USD is technically neutral despite continued intraday volatility.

The GBP/USD pair tumbled to 1.3287, a fresh weekly low, as the Brexit drama continues. EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned the UK that a deal must be reached before the end of this week. “A deal hangs in the balance,” he added as negotiating teams have been locked in the last few days amid divergences about fisheries and a level playing field. It has been 1,623 days since the Brexit referendum and there are just 29 days left for leaders to clinch a deal. The GBP/USD pair recovered to the current 1.3350 price zone during US trading hours, amid the persistent dollar’s weakness.

 The UK macroeconomic calendar is quite scarce this week. The kingdom published the October BRC Shop Price Index, which resulted in -1.8% from -1.2% in the previous month. On Thursday, Markit will release the final November Services PMI, expected to be confirmed at 45.8.

GBP/USD short-term technical outlook

The GBP/USD pair is neutral in the near-term, still dependent on Brexit headlines. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is struggling around a directionless 20 SMA after meeting buyers around a bullish 100 SMA, currently at 1.3280. In the meantime, technical indicators lack clear directional strength around their midlines. The bearish case will gain followers on a break below the mentioned 100 SMA.

Support levels: 1.3330 1.3280 1.3225

Resistance levels: 1.3390 1.3440 1.3490

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