22916 February 28, 2019 19:33 FXStreet Market News
According to Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, the ECB in its meeting next week will have to balance between pre-emptive action, which could be perceived as panic, and a relaxed wait-and-see attitude, which could be perceived as complacency.
Key Quotes
“The latest ECB staff projection are very likely to show a downward revision of 2019 GDP growth (1.7% in the December projections). However, any revision which does not go lower than the current consensus of 1.4% is simply proof of the ECB’s sense of reality and no reason to panic. Any significant downward revisions to the ECB’s 2020 and 2021 GDP growth forecasts (1.7% and 1.5% in December) would be a much more alarming signal, particularly as this time around any changes to the forecasts would be mainly driven by changes in the fundamental assessment of the economy and not by revisions to the technical assumptions.”
“Compared with the December projections, there should be no new impulse from oil prices. The effective exchange rate and bond yields are somewhat lower but not low enough to push growth and inflation forecasts higher. This, in our view, also means that there will be hardly any changes to the ECB’s staff projections for inflation (1.6%, 1.7% and 1.8% for the period 2019-2021 in the December projections).”
“In this situation of increased uncertainties, a normal ECB reaction would be to sound dovish, stay on high-alert and tackle the situation with words not action. However, recent comments by several ECB officials have given rise to speculation about changes in the forward guidance on interest rates and the announcement of new Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) In our view, the discussion on these issues is ongoing but will not be concluded next week.”
“We expect the ECB to announce next week that the Governing Council asked the relevant committees to look into options on how to deal with liquidity bottlenecks and bank profitability. The April meeting will then be the meeting where the real ECB action is. This, however, does not mean that next week’s meeting will be dull. Just getting a glimpse of an interesting and probably controversial discussion behind closed doors can be thrilling.”
22913 February 28, 2019 19:31 SwingFish Forex Signals AUDJPY
H1 Buy AUDJPY
Buy now (79.02)
Buy Limit 78.905 78.864
Stop: 78.864
TP 79.731
Full Article22910 February 28, 2019 18:33 FXStreet Market News
• A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade helped the precious metal staged a goodish bounce on Thursday and recover around 50% of the overnight slide to 1-1/2 week lows.
• The momentum lifted the commodity through 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1346-$1317 recent downfall, with bulls now eyeing a further appreciating move towards 100-hour SMA.
• Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have just started gaining positive traction and maintained their bullish bias on the daily chart, supporting prospects for additional gains.
• The set-up points to an extension of the positive momentum towards testing 38.2% Fibo. level resistance, around the $1328-30 region ahead of the Q4 US GDP figures.
Gold 1-hourly chart
XAU/USD
Overview:
Today Last Price: 1324.87
Today Daily change %: 0.36%
Today Daily Open: 1320.1
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1320.01
Daily SMA50: 1299.06
Daily SMA100: 1263.27
Daily SMA200: 1235.57
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1330.15
Previous Daily Low: 1317.05
Previous Weekly High: 1346.85
Previous Weekly Low: 1320.72
Previous Monthly High: 1326.25
Previous Monthly Low: 1275.9
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1322.05
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1325.15
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1314.72
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1309.33
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1301.62
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1327.82
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1335.53
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1340.92
22909 February 28, 2019 18:03 FXStreet Market News
Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, notes that the Swiss GDP grew 0.2% QoQ in 4Q18, with growth picking up again, following the 0.3% contraction in GDP in 4Q18.
Key Quotes
“Manufacturing contributed significantly to this result (+ 1.5%), offsetting its very poor Q3 performance. This was particularly thanks to the rise in merchandise exports (+5.6%). At the same time, domestic demand remained weak. While private consumption has picked up somewhat, investments have contracted – a sign of increased uncertainty.”
“Over 2018 as a whole, GDP increased by 2.5%, its best result since 2014. Growth in 2018 was mainly driven by foreign trade.”
“The encouraging 2.5% growth rate in 2018 follows an up-and-down year: with an exceptional first half (with 0.9% and 0.7% QoQ growth in Q1 and Q2) after very good momentum in late 2017 and the second part of 2018 strongly disappointing.”
“The question now is whether in 2019 Switzerland will be able to maintain a growth rate higher than that of the eurozone. We believe that this will be difficult, and expect the Swiss economy to grow at a rate of around 1.2% in 2019.”
22908 February 28, 2019 17:53 ICMarkets Market News
Dear Trader,
Please find below important information relating to a recent notice from Metaquotes regarding the Metatrader 4 platform.
Metaquotes, the technology provider behind the Metatrader 4 platform will stop supporting MetaTrader 4 desktop terminal builds below 1118 and MetaTrader 4 Android terminals below 1104 after 1st March, 2019.
Clients are requested to update to the latest version of MetaTrader 4 platforms for uninterrupted Trading as the older versions of MT4 client terminals will not be able to connect to servers.
The latest versions of MetaTrader Desktop and Android Terminals can be accessed from your Client Area
If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via Live Chat, email: support@icmarkets.com, or phone +61 (0)2 8014 4280.
Kind regards,
IC Markets
22907 February 28, 2019 17:53 FXStreet Market News
UK Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay crossed the wires in the last minute and said that there is no consensus in parliament about a second referendum.
The British Pound seemed rather unaffected by the latest comments, with the GBP/USD pair consolidating the recent gains to multi-week lows and trading with modest losses just below the 1.3300 handle.
22906 February 28, 2019 17:33 FXStreet Market News
WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its Asian retreat from ahead of the 57 handle into the European trading, as the bears now look to test the 56.50 psychological support.
The black gold failed to sustain the upbeat US EIA crude inventories report-led rally to 57.40 region and embarked upon a steady decline so far this Thursday, in response to weakening factory sector activity reports from China and Japan while surging US crude production levels combined with escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan also dampened the sentiment around oil.
On Wednesday, both the sides exchanged fire along their contested border in Kashmir. Pakistan shot down two Indian warplanes and captured the pilot. The latest update is that India has asked Pakistan to release the pilot unhurt.
Looking ahead, the developments around the Indo-Pak dispute will continue to drive the risk sentiment and eventually the safe-haven bids for dollar, which may have a major bearing on the USD-sensitive oil.
Meanwhile, the ongoing OPEC output cuts and potential supply risks from the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could help cushion the downside.
WTI Technical Levels
Overview:
Today Last Price: 56.63
Today Daily change: -24 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.42%
Today Daily Open: 57.15
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 55.18
Daily SMA50: 52.16
Daily SMA100: 54.76
Daily SMA200: 62.46
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 57.56
Previous Daily Low: 55.91
Previous Weekly High: 57.92
Previous Weekly Low: 55.72
Previous Monthly High: 55.48
Previous Monthly Low: 44.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 56.93
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 56.54
Daily Pivot Point S1: 56.19
Daily Pivot Point S2: 55.22
Daily Pivot Point S3: 54.54
Daily Pivot Point R1: 57.84
Daily Pivot Point R2: 58.52
Daily Pivot Point R3: 59.49
22904 February 28, 2019 17:03 FXStreet Market News
ING Bank analysis team point out that the markets are believing that the US Fed’s neutral stance will eventually give way to policy easing.
Key Quotes
“Fed funds futures contracts are pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the summer of 2021, but we continue to believe that the next move is more likely to be an interest rate increase.”
“After all, the economy is running pretty strongly with little spare capacity, and this is generating rising wage pressures in the labour market, which should keep consumer confidence and spending supported.”
“We believe the Federal Reserve will overcome its current reticence and hike rates 25bp during the summer.”