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Forexlive Americas FX news: As the clock towards the Fed next week, stocks are not happy

Forexlive Americas FX news: As the clock towards the Fed next week, stocks are not happy

223352   April 30, 2022 05:05   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

As the clock ticks toward the Fed decision next Wednesday, the stocks are not taking it well. Of course, Amazon’s poor earnings after the close last night was a key catalyst today. Amazon shares are closing down over 14% on the day, and is also closing below its 200 week MA for the first time since 2009.

Apple’s earnings released yesterday were quite not as bad, but they warned about a revenue hit expected from China which acted as a reminder of the impact of the Covid lockdown for not only Apple, but others that rely on supply from that country.

Will supply constraints/supply shock ever go away and what will be the impact on inflation going forward?

Meanwhile the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, and have more or less telegraphed another 50 basis points and other tightenings into the year end as they try to break some of the inflation run higher and get their target rate toward the neutral rate of 2% to 2.5%.

In further anticipation, rates moved higher today which acted as another head wind to the stock market. The 30 year yield is back above the 3.00% level after dipping to 2.82% at the low for the week. The 2 year yield is also back near the high for the cycle at 2.787%. The 10 year yield is 5 basis points from its cycle high at 2.981%

yields
US yields move higher today

For the month of April,

  • 2 year yield moved from 2.33% t o 2.73% or +40 basis points
  • 5 year yield moved from 2.46% to 2.96% or 50 basis points
  • 10 year yield moved from 2.34% to 2.93% or +59 basis points
  • 30 year yield moved from 2.45% to 3.00% or 55 basis points

For the stock market today, the major indices took it on the chin again after a reprieve yesterday:

  • Dow industrial average plunged -939.18 points or 2.77% to 32977.22
  • S&P index fell -155.57 points or -3.63% to 4131.92
  • NASDAQ index felt -536.80 points or -4.17% to 12334.65
  • Russell 2000 felt -53.84 points or -2.81% to 1864.10

For the week, the NASDAQ index was the worst performer losing close to 4% on the week as well. The numbers for the week are showing:

  • Dow industrial average, -2.47%
  • S&P index, -3.27%
  • NASDAQ index, -3.93%
  • Russell 2000, -4.07%

Stocks continue to prepare for higher rates, higher inflation, and potentially slower growth ahead as well.

In the forex today, the USD is ending mixed on the day with gains vs the NZD, AUD, CAD, and declines vs the GBP, JPY and EUR. The USD was near unchanged vs the CHF today.

The GBP was the strongest of the major today, while flow of funds exited the risk-off currencies. The NZD, AUD and CAD were the weakest of the majors.

Forex
The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies

Technically:

  • EURUSD: The EURUSD is higher on the day but could not get above the falling 100 hour MA at 1.05907. The pair is trading at 1.0544 into the close after reaching a low at 1.04703 yesterday. That was the lowest level since January 2017. If the pair cannot muster a move above the 100 hour MA next week, a move toward the 2016 low at 1.0339. After that and the choir will be singing for parity.
  • GBPUSD: The GBPUSD had a nice rebound today off the lowest level since July 2020 yesterday at 1.2410. The price moved above its falling 100 hour MA at 1.2577 and reached a high today of 1.2606, but has rotated back toward the 200 hour MA into the close. That MA at 1.2577 will be a barometer for the short term buyers and sellers next week.
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY continued to make “20 year highs” this week with the pair extending up to a high of 131.246. Today, however, saw the price move lower and test the old high from April 20 at 129.40. The price bounced near that level up to 129.73 into the close, but next week the 129.40 level will be a close barometer for the market. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and more downside probing can be expected.

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Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos rose from previous -111.57B to 103.929B in March
Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos rose from previous -111.57B to 103.929B in March

Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos rose from previous -111.57B to 103.929B in March

223351   April 30, 2022 05:05   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

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AUD/USD struggles around 0.7200 and nosedived below 0.7100 as bears eye 0.7000

AUD/USD struggles around 0.7200 and nosedived below 0.7100 as bears eye 0.7000

223349   April 30, 2022 04:51   FXStreet   Market News  

  • The AUD/USD is aiming lower in the month and would record its most significant loss since March 2020., down 5.57%.
  • A risk-off market mood dragged the AUD/USD lower as late position trading favors the greenback.
  • US Treasury yields jumped late in the session, led by the 10-year up ten basis points, at 2.936%.
  • AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bears prepare an assault of 0.7000.

The AUD/USD plummets from daily highs near 0.7200 and tanked below 0.7100 as market sentiment turned sour, ahead of a busy week for the Australian and US economic dockets, as both countries’ central banks would have monetary policy meetings. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7069.

Market sentiment weakens the risk-sensitive AUD

Risk-aversion rules April’s last trading day, as portrayed by US equities set to record losses between 2.32% and 4.09%. Factors like China’s covid outbreak, Federal Reserve tightening, and the Russia-Ukraine war developments weighed on market sentiment.

On Friday, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose to 5.2% y/y, lower than the 5.3% estimations. However, headline inflation expanded by 6.6% y/y, from 6.3% in the previous month. The data further strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the next week, as the US central bank chief Jerome Powell expressed during the month that a 50-bps increase is “on the table.”

Hotter than expected inflationary readings reported during the week on the Australian front paint a problematic scenario for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as a federal election looms on May 16th. Money market futures odds of a 0.25 bps increase by the RBA sit at an 85% chance, though some analysts were expecting a 40-bps rate hike.

The consensus amongst economists is that the board would stay put and hold rates unchanged. However, according to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sees the RBA delivering a 40-bps move in June.

Therefore, the AUD/USD scenario favors the greenback. But, a higher-than-expected RBA rate increase or a “dovish” Federal Reserve would boost the prospects of the AUD, though it’s unlikely to happen.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD remains downward biased, accelerating its downward trend as shown by the daily chart. The MACD remains bearish, as the MACD/signal lines aim lower while the histogram expands downwards. Additionally, the daily moving averages (DMAs) above the spot price confirm the aforementioned, though it’s worth noting that the 50-DMA remains on top of the 200 and the 100-DMA.

That said, the AUD/USD’s first support would be February’s 4 cycle low around 0.7051. A break below would expose February’s 1 daily low at 0.7033, followed by the S3 daily pivot at the triple-zero figure at 0.7000.

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United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $68.4K to $122.8K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $68.4K to $122.8K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $68.4K to $122.8K

223348   April 30, 2022 04:49   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $-27.7K  vs $-28.8K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $-27.7K vs $-28.8K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $-27.7K vs $-28.8K

223347   April 30, 2022 04:49   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 316.1K from previous 307.7K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 316.1K from previous 307.7K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 316.1K from previous 307.7K

223346   April 30, 2022 04:45   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-95.5K  vs ¥-107.2K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-95.5K vs ¥-107.2K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-95.5K vs ¥-107.2K

223345   April 30, 2022 04:45   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $218K from previous $239.8K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $218K from previous $239.8K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $218K from previous $239.8K

223344   April 30, 2022 04:40   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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European Monetary Union CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €22.2K from previous €31.3K
European Monetary Union CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €22.2K from previous €31.3K

European Monetary Union CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €22.2K from previous €31.3K

223343   April 30, 2022 04:40   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions dipped from previous £-58.9K to £-69.6K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions dipped from previous £-58.9K to £-69.6K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions dipped from previous £-58.9K to £-69.6K

223342   April 30, 2022 04:35   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Colombia Interest rate in line with expectations (6%) in April
Colombia Interest rate in line with expectations (6%) in April

Colombia Interest rate in line with expectations (6%) in April

223341   April 30, 2022 04:35   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Closing levels: Stocks puke into the close. Nasdaq falls to the lowest in a year

Closing levels: Stocks puke into the close. Nasdaq falls to the lowest in a year

223338   April 30, 2022 04:21   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Powell moses

The old adage is that stocks don’t bottom on Fridays. Of course, it’s also the final trading day of the month so that could have led to some special selling flows that could reverse on Monday as we begin May.

On the day:

  • S&P 500 -3.6% worst single day since June 2020. Lowest close since May 2021
  • Nasdaq -4.3%
  • DJIA 2.8%
  • Russell 2000 -2.9%
  • Toronto TSX Comp -1.7%

Amazon was down 14% in its worst day since 2006.

On the week:

  • S&P 500 -3.3%
  • Nasdaq -3.9%
  • DJIA -2.5%
  • Russell 2000 -4.0%

On the month:

  • S&P 500 -8.8% — worst monthly drop since March 2020
  • Nasdaq -13.3% — largest monthly decline since 2008
  • DJIA -4.9% — worst monthly drop since March 2020

On the year, the Nasdaq is now down 21.2%. With that as a monthly close, it’s a bear market in tech stocks.

Nasdaq weekly April 29

Drawdowns in big-cap tech:

  • AAPL 13.2%
  • MSFT 18.7%
  • GOOGL 23.6%
  • TSLA 29.0%
  • AMZN 34.1%
  • NVDA 44.2%
  • FB 47.4%
  • NFLX 72.3%

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