Articles
US JOLTS job openings 10.33m vs 10.3m expected
274887 November 30, 2022 23:05 Forexlive Latest News Market News
- Prior was 10.717m (revised to 10.687m)
- Quits rate 2.6% vs 2.7% prior
- Layoffs 0.9% vs 0.9% prior
With the revision, this is basically bang in-line with estimates.
The Fed likes JOLTS but I think that’s a blind spot. There’s so much automated hiring and ‘always-hiring’ practices at big companies that I don’t think this report offers a clear picture of the economy. But they won’t find that out until JOLTS remain high and the US is losing 200k jobs a month.
In any case, the US dollar is a bit higher on this as the pendulum swings slightly towards more hikes on a solid reading.
Full Article
USD Index: Bears appear in control above 106.00 ahead of Powell
274886 November 30, 2022 23:05 FXStreet Market News
- The index drops to daily lows near 106.30 on Wednesday.
- Another revision saw GDP expand 2.9% YoY in Q3.
- Chair Powell will speak later in the NA session.
The greenback, when tracked by the USD index (DXY) remains on the defensive above the 106.00 hurdle in the wake of the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday.
USD Index now looks at Powell
The index surrenders part of the 3-day advance on the back of the improvement in the risk complex and ahead of the key speech by Chair Powell due later in the NA session.
In addition, the resumption of the downside pressure in the buck comes in tandem with another positive performance of US yields across the curve, which seem to have woken up and add to Tuesday’s gains.
In the US data space, MBA Mortgage Applications contracted 0.8% in the week to November 25 and the ADP Employment Change disappointed expectations after the US private sector created 127K jobs in November vs. 200K forecast. Further data saw the trade deficit widen to $99.0B in October and another revision of the Q3 GDP Growth Rate expect the economy to expand 2.9% YoY. Finally, the Chicago PMI eased to 37.2 in November, Pending Home Sales contracted 4.6% MoM in October and JOLTs Job Openings came at 10.334M in the same month. The Fed’s Beige Book will close the daily calendar later in the session.
Before Powell’s speech, FOMC Governor L.Cook will speak on “The Outlook for Monetary Policy and Observations on the Evolving Economy”.
What to look for around USD
The dollar loses part of the recent shine and returns to the 106.30 zone amidst prevailing cautiousness ahead of results from key fundamentals and the speech by Fed’s Powell.
While hawkish Fedspeak maintains the Fed’s pivot narrative in the freezer, upcoming results in US fundamentals would likely play a key role in determining the chances of a slower pace of the Fed’s normalization process in the short term.
Key events in the US this week: Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate, Goods Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, Fed Powell, Fed Beige Book (Wednesday) – PCE, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Spending, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending (Thursday) – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Prospects for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation of a recession in the next months. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China persistent trade conflict.
USD Index relevant levels
Now, the index is retreating 0.34% at 106.47 and the breakdown of 105.47 (200-day SMA) would open the door to 105.32 (weekly low November 28) and finally 104.63 (monthly low August 10). On the other hand, the immediate resistance emerges at 107.99 (weekly high November 21) followed by 109.11 (100-day SMA) and then 110.34 (55-day SMA).
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United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-5.2%) in October: Actual (-4.6%)
274885 November 30, 2022 23:05 FXStreet Market News
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United States JOLTS Job Openings came in at 10.334M, above forecasts (10.3M) in October
274883 November 30, 2022 23:02 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) came in at -37%, below expectations (-10.7%) in October
274882 November 30, 2022 23:02 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Further upside likely above 1.0420
274878 November 30, 2022 22:45 FXStreet Market News
- EUR/USD trades in a firm note and approaches the 1.0400 zone.
- Extra gains need to clear the 9-month resistance line near 1.0420.
Wednesday’s occasional bullish attempt motivates EUR/USD to trade at shouting distance from the key 1.0400 neighbourhood.
The pair should clear the 9-month resistance line around 1.0420 on a sustainable fashion to catch fresh air and therefore challenge the November high at 1.0496 (November 28) just ahead of the round level at 1.0500.
Above the 200-day SMA (1.0372), the pair’s outlook should remain constructive.
EUR/USD daily chart
All eyes on Powell with USD risks to the upside – MUFG
274877 November 30, 2022 22:45 FXStreet Market News
Today the focus is very much on Fed Chair Powell who will speak on the economy and labour market. Economists at MUFG Bank note that risks are tilted to the upside for the US Dollar.
Powell in focus
“We fully expect comments that are consistent with previous comments – more needs to be done, inflation risks remain to the upside and the terminal rate will be higher than implied by the dots in September.”
“Key for the US Dollar and rates will be whether Powell’s comments are enough to alter notably the expectations for the terminal rate. That level is currently at about 5.00% and the risks in our view firmly lie to the potential for a shift higher that would provide a further catalyst for the reversal of the recent period of USD selling.”
Full Article
Major US stock indices open little changed
274876 November 30, 2022 22:35 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The major US indices open little changed. The ADP report was weaker than expectations. The GDP is old news now, but it came in 2.9% vs 2.7% estimate. The Advanced goods trade balance comes in at -99B which was a bigger trade gap than expected but that release can be volatile.
A snapshot of the market shows:
- Dow industrial average is up 42 points or 0.13% at 33892
- S&P index up 5.9 points or 0.15% at 3963.16
- NASDAQ index up 20 point or 0.18% at 11002.20
- Russell 2000 is up 3.73 point or 0.20% at 1840.15
In the US debt market, the yields are moving higher from earlier New York levels:
- two year 4.528%, +5.6 basis points
- five year 3.968% +4.7 basis points
- 10 year 3.777% +3.0 basis points
- 30 year 3.833% +3.0 basis points
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases from two-week high, holds above $1,750 ahead of Powell
274875 November 30, 2022 22:12 FXStreet Market News
- Gold price climbs to a two-week high on Wednesday amid renewed US Dollar selling.
- Upward revision of the US GDP print offsets dismal ADP report and fails to impress.
- Traders also seem reluctant ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
Gold price gains strong positive traction for the second successive day and climbs to a two-week high, during the early North American session on Wednesday. The momentum, however, stalls near the $1,765 area following the release of the US macro data, though the downside seems limited amid a weaker US Dollar, which tends to boost demand for the Dollar-denominated commodity.
Weaker US Dollar continues to lend support to Gold price
The US Dollar remains on track to post its worst monthly performance since September 2010 amid hopes that the Federal Reserve will soften its hawkish stance in the wake of looming recession risks. The current market pricing indicates a greater chance of a relatively smaller 50 bps rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 13-14. This is evident from a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, continues to act as a headwind for the Greenback.
Disappointing ADP report does little to impress US Dollar bulls
The intraday US Dollar selling remains unabated following the disappointing release of the ADP report, showing that the US private-sector employers added 127K jobs in November. The headline print was well below the previous month’s reading of 239K and 200K anticipated. This, in turn, tempers expectations for any positive surprise from the official jobs report (NFP) on Friday. That said, an upward revision of the United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) helps offset the disappointment.
Upbeat US GDP report caps gains for Gold price ahead of Powell’s speech
The preliminary report (second estimate) released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the economy expanded by 2.9% annualized pace during the third quarter against 2.6% reported previously. This helps limit any deeper losses for the US Dollar and caps Gold price. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which will be looked upon for clues about future rate hikes and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, any further pullback now seems to find some support near the $1,748 zone (daily low). This is followed by the $1,740-$1,739 zone, which if broken decisively will negate any near-term positive outlook and make Gold price vulnerable. The downward trajectory might then extend to the $1,725 intermediate support, or a nearly two-week low touched last Wednesday, en route to the $1,700 round-figure mark.
On the flip side, momentum beyond the daily top, around the $1,765 area, has the potential to lift Gold price to the $1,770-$1,772 region. Some follow-through strength will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and prolong the upward trajectory to the $1,778 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,786 area, or the highest level since mid-August touched earlier this month, above which the XAU/USD could aim to reclaim the $1,800 psychological mark.
Key levels to watch
Full Article
USD Index Price Analysis: Positive outlook remains above the 200-day SMA
274873 November 30, 2022 22:12 FXStreet Market News
- The index comes under pressure and fades part of the recent advance.
- The underlying bullish view is underpinned by the 200-day SMA.
Sellers now put the recent upside momentum in DXY to the test and force it to return to the negative territory after three daily gains in a row on Wednesday.
In the meantime, the index manages to put some distance from the always relevant 200-day SMA, today at 105.47.
A drop below this region is expected to shift the outlook to negative and at thus allow for losses to accelerate to, initially, the August low at 104.63 (August 10).
DXY daily chart
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) came in at 4.6%, above forecasts (4.5%) in 3Q
274870 November 30, 2022 21:56 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.