Articles
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Initial hurdle appears at the 55-day SMA
294831 February 28, 2023 22:56 FXStreet Market News
- EUR/USD adds to the weekly recovery beyond the 1.0600 mark.
- The 55-day SMA at 1.0715 emerges as the next up barrier near term.
EUR/USD extends the optimism seen at the beginning of the week and looks to extend the breakout of 1.0600 the figure on Tuesday.
There is a provisional up barrier at the 55-day SMA at 1.0715 prior to the weekly high at 1.0804 (February 14). A convincing move above this level could open the door to extra gains in the short-term horizon.
Looking at the longer run, the constructive view remains unchanged while above the 200-day SMA, today at 1.0328.
EUR/USD daily chart
USD/INR: A move beyond 82.95/83.30 is essential to affirm next leg of uptrend – SocGen
294830 February 28, 2023 22:51 FXStreet Market News
Economists at Société Générale discuss USD/INR technicals. The pair could enjoy further gains on a break past the 82.95/83.30 resistance zone.
82.30 is crucial support
“USD/INR has evolved within a large sideways consolidation resembling an ascending triangle; a clear direction has been lacking.”
“Overcoming the resistance zone at 82.95/83.30 would be essential for affirming an extended uptrend.”
“Recent bullish gap at 82.30 is the first layer of support. In case this gets violated, a short-term pullback is likely.”
See: USD/INR to move slightly lower toward 81.50 by year-end – Commerzbank
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United States Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 43.6, below expectations (45) in February
294829 February 28, 2023 22:49 FXStreet Market News
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EUR/GBP slides further under 0.8780, to lowest in four-weeks
294828 February 28, 2023 22:49 FXStreet Market News
- France and Spain’s inflation numbers surpass expectations, according to preliminary data in February.
- Agreement between the UK and EU boosts the Pound.
- EUR/GBP moving with a bearish bias.
The EUR/GBP is falling on Tuesday, trading at the lowest level in a month. The cross broke under 0.8780 and fell to 0.8759, the lowest level since late January.
EUR and GBP outperforming
Despite falling versus the Pound, the Euro is among the top performers on Tuesday boosted by rising Eurozone government bond yields. The German 2-year yield rose to the highest since 2008 and the 10-year stands at 2.70%, up 4.65% for the day, at the highest since July 2011.
France and Spain reported preliminary inflation numbers showing an unexpected acceleration. French CPI rose 7.2% from a year ago, against expectations of 7%. Spain’s CPI rose 6.1% from 5.9%, above the market consensus of 5.7%.
Inflation figures boosted a decline in European bonds and an increase in European Central Bank tightening expectations. Despite those effects, EUR/GBP drifted lower.
The Pound benefited from the deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom on the Northern Ireland Protocol. “This had been widely reported for weeks but markets reacted positively to the news. Now comes the hard part, as Prime Minister Sunak must get Parliament to approve the agreement”, explained analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. They suspect the deal will eventually be passed “but there is absolutely nothing to get bullish about. The agreement simply avoids a potential trade war as the UK had threatened to unilaterally change the Brexit deal, which would trigger sanctions from the EU”.
The Brexit deal and an improvement in market sentiment are favoring the Pound on Tuesday. Also, some technical factors contribute to the negative momentum. EUR/GBP broke below 0.8780 and fell to 0.8759. It is hovering near the lows, under pressure.
Technical levels
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Major US stock indices mixed in early trading
294827 February 28, 2023 22:45 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The major US stock indices are opening mixed with the Dow and the S&P trading lower and the Nasdaq up modestly.
A snapshot of the major indices 10 minutes into the open and showing:
- Dow Industrial Average down to -100.74 points or -0.31% at 32788.36
- S&P index -2.27 points or -0.06% at 3979.96
- NASDAQ index up 7.74 points or 0.07% at 11474.71
- Russell 2000 up 7.45 points or 0.39% 1903.72
United States Redbook Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 5.3% in February 24
294826 February 28, 2023 22:40 FXStreet Market News
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GBP/USD Price Analysis: Climbs further beyond 1.2100, eyes 50-day SMA amid softer USD
294824 February 28, 2023 22:40 FXStreet Market News
- GBP/USD turns positive for the second successive day and climbs back above the 1.2100 mark.
- A positive risk tone undermines the USD and lends some support amid the latest Brexit optimism.
- Bulls might still wait for a sustained strength beyond the 50-day SMA before placing fresh bets.
The GBP/USD pair catches fresh bids following an early slide to the 1.2025 area on Tuesday and builds on the previous day’s solid bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The momentum pushes spot prices to a four-day high, beyond the 1.2100 mark, during the early North American session and is sponsored by a combination of factors.
The latest optimism over a new deal on the Northern Ireland protocol between the UK and EU, along with rising bets for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE), underpin the British Pound. Adding to this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets weighs on the safe-haven US Dollar and lends some support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed should act as a tailwind for the Greenback and cap the major amid looming recession risks.
Moreover, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution for aggressive bullish traders and before positioning for a further appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the 50-day SMA, currently around the 1.2145 region. Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift spot prices beyond the 1.2200 mark, towards the recent swing high, around the 1.2265-1.2270 zone.
On the flip side, the 1.2065-1.2060 area now seems to act as immediate support ahead of the 1.2025 zone (the daily low) and the 1.2000 psychological mark. Any further decline might continue to attract some buyers and remain limited near the 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.1925-1.1920 region. A convincing break below the latter will complete a bearish double-top pattern formed near the 1.2445 area and drag the GBP/USD pair to the YTD low, around the 1.1840 zone touched in January.
GBP/USD daily chart
Key levels to watch
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United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) below expectations (6.1%) in December: Actual (4.6%)
294823 February 28, 2023 22:35 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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GBP/USD must hold the 200-DMA at 1.1926 to avoid deeper losses – SocGen
294822 February 28, 2023 22:35 FXStreet Market News
Analysts at Société Générale discuss GBP outlook. The GBP/USD pair is not out of the woods yet.
Resistance running at 1.2450
“Much stronger than forecast UK services PMI and optimism that inflation will fall sharply by the end of the year have caused the narrative on the pound to improve. GBP/USD is not in the clear however and must hold the 200-DMA at 1.1926 to avoid deeper losses which could still materialise in March.”
“The outlook for wider Fed/BoE policy spread should limit upside for GBP/USD in the medium-term with resistance running at 1.2450.”
“The new deal between the UK and the EU on changes to the NI protocol will be signed but will not immediately translate into windfalls for the economy and the currency. It has no impact on the BoE and at what level interest rates peak.”
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US: Housing Price Index declines 0.1% in December vs -0.6% expected
294821 February 28, 2023 22:33 FXStreet Market News
- House prices in the US declined at a softer pace than expected in December.
- US Dollar Index stays in negative territory at around 104.50.
House prices in the US declined by 0.1% on a monthly basis in December, the monthly data published by the US Federal Housing Finance Agency showed on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.6%.
Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index arrived at 4.6% on a yearly basis in December, down from 6.8% in November and lower than analysts’ estimate of 6.1%.
Market reaction
The US Dollar stays under modest selling pressure after this report and the US Dollar Index was last seen losing 0.15% on the day at 104.47.
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United States Housing Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.1% above expectations (-0.6%) in December
294820 February 28, 2023 22:33 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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GBP/USD: Potential to reach recent peaks in the mid-1.24s – Scotiabank
294819 February 28, 2023 22:29 FXStreet Market News
GBP/USD surged higher and closed the day above 1.2000. Economists at Scotiabank believe that the pair could extend its rally as high as the mid-1.24s.
Last week’s peak is a potential double bottom trigger
“Sterling had a very positive session overall yesterday (bullish outside range to reject the 200-Day Moving Average support). Follow-through demand puts near-term focus on the mid-1.21 zone where last week’s high and the 55-DMA converge.”
“Last week’s peak is a potential double bottom trigger following the GBP’s two recent tests of the 1.1925/30 area. Gains through here would target a retest of the GBP’s recent peaks in the mid-1.24s at least.”
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