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At the turn of the year, it looked like a certainty that Conservatives would form a large majority in this year’s Canadian election but Trump changed everything. His harsh tariffs on Canada and unceasing 51st state talk upended the focus on housing/immigration/culture and put it squarely on sovereignty.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre struggled to strike the right chord on that issue and the Liberal Party replaced the unpopular Justin Trudeau with the electable Mark Carney. With that, and a collapse in the left-leaning NDP, the polls have been flipped upside down. Liberals now enjoy a roughly 5 point advantage in a split that will likely lead to a majority.

Of course, the polls have been wrong many times in the past decade so we will wait for Monday’s results.

If anything, there will be some modest disappointment in CAD if the Liberals win, though I would expect something less than 50 pips in USD/CAD as it should be widely priced in now.

Based on polling averages, Scotia estimates an 80% probability of a Liberal majority. The remaining probabilities are for a Liberal minority or Conservative minority, with only a tail rise of an outright Conservative win.

The worst-case scenario for the loonie would be another Liberal government propped up by the NDP and/or Bloc Quebecois. That would stifle Carney’s touted agenda to improve building conditions in Canada and extend the bloated bureaucracy.

In contrast, if the Conservatives pull out a win, I would expect to see a relief rally in the loonie, that could extend to a full cent — all else equal.

After the dusk settles, I think the larger ultimate signal for Canadian assets will be how Carney forms cabinet. We still have scant ideas on what he wants to do and if he stacks it with former Trudeau ministers — particularly in the environment portfolio — then it could spell trouble.

Most notably though will be how Trump and Carney get along. The early indications are that the 51st state talk isn’t going to go away.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US stocks end the week with a four day win streak
• Feds Semi-annu Anderson al survey: Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk
• What are the key economic events on the calendar next week
• Earnings calendar: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca-Cola
• Crude oil futures settle at $63.02
• EU Comm. Dombrovski: Reiterates that EU willing to reach mutually agreeable solution w/ US
• Trump: Will not drop China tariffs unless they give us something
• Trump: We will be reasonable on tariffs
• European equity close: Solid gains to cap a sizzling week
• Kremlin: US envoy Witkoff and Putin met for 3-hours. Talks were constructive
• BOE Greene: we are not sure if weakness in UK economy is demand or supply
• University of Michigan final sentiment for April 52.2 versus 50.8
• USTR: Greer: It is constantly engaged w/Japan & other countries in reciprocal trade talks
• Canada retail sales for February -0.4% versus -0.4% estimate
• Chinese Embassy: US and China are not having any talks on tariffs
• The USD is higher to start the new trading day. What are the charts telling traders?
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Markets less optimistic after Trump’s interview with Time

The markets were not all that giddy about the Time Magazine interview with Pres Trump. The article addressed several key international and economic issues.

• He expressed no or little concern about the bond market turmoil earlier in April, stating confidence in his economic direction.
• On foreign policy, he asserted that Crimea would remain with Russia and maintained that peace is possible even with Vladimir Putin in power
• When asked about potential U.S. involvement if Israel goes to war with Iran, he clarified he didn’t commit to staying out.
• He confirmed that China’s President Xi had contacted him
• He also emphasized that high tariffs—i.e. 20% to 50%—are part of a long-term strategy to bolster the U.S. economy, calling such a scenario a “total victory.”
• Trump noted upcoming trade deal announcements and reiterated his openness to taxing millionaires.
• He also entertained the oft-mentioned expansionist ideas such as acquiring the Panama Canal, Greenland, and making Canada the 51st U.S. state.

Although stocks were lower to start the trading day, they did ease into the open and moved into positive territory in the morning session.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index was a positive at least relative to the preliminary data, although still near the lowest levels going back to at least 2009. The inflation readings were also elevated with one-year inflation at 6.5%, but at least it was lower than the 6.7% preliminary.

That helped to keep the stocks in positive territory. As Pres. Trump said today the market seem to be getting used to the tariffs (until there used to or the impact from inflation/supply shocks make the markets nervous again). Nevertheless, today was the fourth consecutive day higher in major US stock indices. The NASDAQ index after losing over -2.5% clawed back those declines and added 6.7% more for the week. The S&P index closed higher by 4.59% for the trading week after also climbing by about -2.5% on Monday.

For the trading day:

• Dow industrial average rose 0.05%
• S&P index rose 0.74%
• NASDAQ index rose 1.26%

European shares also advanced today and for the week:

• German DAX rose 0.81% for the day, and 4.89% for the week.
• UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.09% for the day and 1.69% for the week
• CAC rose 0.45% for the day and 3.44% for the week.
• Spain’s Ibex rose 1.33% for the day and 3.39% for the week
• Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 1.47 for the day and 3.8% for the week

In the US debt market, yields were lower today, and closed lower for the week as well:

• 2-year yield 3.756%, -3.5 basis points. For the week the yield fell -4.4 basis points.
• 5-year yield 3.875%, -5.2 basis points. For the week the yield fell -6.7 basis points.
• 10 year yield 4.250%, -5.4 basis points. For the week, the yield fell -8.0 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.716%, -4.9 basis points. For the week the yield fell -9.0 basis points

The 2 – 10 year spread reached its highest level since January 2022 this week rising to 64.8 basis points, but is back down to 50.1 basis points at the end of the week.

The 2-30 year spread also reached the highest level going back to January 2022 at 113 basis points, but is closing at 96.2 basis points.

The US dollar is ending the day higher versus all the major currencies. Looking at the changes:

• EUR, +0.25%
• JPY +0.79%
• GBP +0.24%
• CHF +0.12%
• CAD +0.04%
• AUD +0.20%
• NZD +0.60%

For the trading week,, the greenback was mixed with gains versus the EUR, JPY, CHF and losses vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The USD was near unchanged vs the CAD. A snapshot of the week changes shows:

• EUR +0.26%
• GBP -0.16%
• JPY +1.12%
• CHF +1.44%
• CAD unchanged
• AUD -0.35%
• NZD -0.54%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices close the week with a four day when streak. Monday’s declines of over 2.5% were erased on Tuesday. The gains from Wednesday Thursday and Friday were icing on the cake.

The NASDAQ index outpaced the other major indices with a gain of 6.73%.

.For the day, the NASDAQ rose 1.26%

A snapshot of the final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 20.10 points or 0.05% at 40113.50.
• S&P index rose 40.44 points or 0.74% at 5525.21.
• NASDAQ index rose to 16.90 or 1.26% at 17382.94

for the trading week:

• Dow industrial average rose 2.48%
• S&P index rose 4.59%
• NASDAQ index rose 6.73%

Some of the biggest winners this week included:

• Palantir: +19.88%

• Robinhood Markets: +19.72%

• Trump Media & Technology Group: +18.83%

• Tesla: +18.06%

• SoFi Technologies: +17.21%

• MicroStrategy: +16.26%

• Shopify Inc: +16.10%

• Micron: +15.92%

• Super Micro Computer: +15.76%

• Nio A ADR: +14.35%

• Netflix: +13.20%

• CrowdStrike Holdings: +13.11%

Next week, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple report earnings. Also, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pfizer, Exxon Mobil, Coca-Cola, Chevron will all report as well

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• 🔴 Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk to the U.S. financial system, according to new Federal Reserve survey

• 🔴 Fed says growing stablecoin sector remains subject to run risks

• 🔴 Fed says bank funding vulnerabilities in line with historical norms

• 🔴 Fed says funding markets were resilient through early April’s market volatility

• 🔴 Global trade risks, fiscal debt sustainability, and policy uncertainty top concerns of Fed survey respondents

• 🔴 Fed survey respondents also cite foreign divestment from U.S. assets, value of U.S. dollar, as other new potential shocks

• 🔴 Fed survey: Some respondents say ‘incremental tariffs’ may only cause modest disruption

• 🔴 Fed in latest Financial Stability Report says prices remain high relative to fundamentals even after April market turmoil

• 🔴 Fed says liquidity in Treasury and equity markets was low and worsened further in April, though market functioning remained orderly

• 🔴 Fed says Treasury markets continued to see orderly trading, markets continued to function amid recent volatility

• 🔴 Fed says commercial real estate prices showed some signs of stabilizing

• 🔴 Fed says banking system remained sound and resilient, but hedge fund leverage rose to historical highs, concentrated among largest funds

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Monday, April 28

• Canada Federal Election (All day)

Tuesday, April 29

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Forecast: 7.48M; Prior: 7.57M)

• Australia CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.8%; Prior: 0.2%)

• Australia CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.3%; Prior: 2.4%)

• Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.6%; Prior: 0.5%)

• China Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.8; Prior: 50.5)

• Germany Preliminary CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 0.3%)

Wednesday, April 30

• U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: 123K; Prior: 155K)

• Canada GDP m/m (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 0.4%)

• U.S. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 2.4%)

• U.S. Employment Cost Index q/q (Forecast: 0.9%; Prior: 0.9%)

• 7:00am: U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m (Forecast: 0.1%; Prior: 0.4%)

• Tentative: BOJ Policy Rate Decision (Expected: <0.50%)

• BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

• BOJ Outlook Report

• BOJ Press Conference

Thursday, May 1

• U.S. Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 224K; Prior: 222K)

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 48.0; Prior: 49.0)

Friday, May 2

• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prior: 0.3%)

• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Forecast: 129K; Prior: 228K)

• U.S. Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.2%; Prior: 4.2%)

• All day: Australia Parliamentary Elections

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The earnings calendar heats up next week with the number of big-name releases including Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Starbucks, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron on scheduled to release. Below is the full list of some of the bigger names on the schedule.

Monday, April 29

Before Open:

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

• MGM Resorts (MGM)

After Close:

• Waste Management (WM)

• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

• F5 Networks (FFIV)

• Teradyne (TER)

Tuesday, April 30

Before Open:

• SoFi (SOFI)

• PayPal (PYPL)

• UPS

• JetBlue (JBLU)

• Coca-Cola (KO)

• Pfizer (PFE)

• Royal Caribbean (RCL)

• Spotify (SPOT)

• Altria (MO)

After Close:

• Visa (V)

• Starbucks (SBUX)

• Snap Inc. (SNAP)

• First Solar (FSLR)

• PPG Industries (PPG)

• Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday, May 1

Before Open:

• Humana (HUM)

• Caterpillar (CAT)

• Vulcan Materials (VMC)

• Western Digital (WDC)

• Generac (GNRC)

• International Paper (IP)

• Hess (HES)

After Close:

• Microsoft (MSFT)

• Meta (META)

• Robinhood (HOOD)

• Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday, May 2

Before Open:

• Eli Lilly (LLY)

• Roblox (RBLX)

• CVS Health (CVS)

• Mastercard (MA)

• SiriusXM (SIRI)

• McDonald’s (MCD)

• Shake Shack (SHAK)

After Close:

• Amazon (AMZN)

• Apple (AAPL)

• Airbnb (ABNB)

📅 Friday, May 3

Before Open:

• ExxonMobil (XOM)

• Chevron (CVX)

• Cigna (CI)

• Wendy’s (WEN)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures settled $63.02. That’s up $0.23 or 0.37%.

For the trading week, the price fell -1.03%.. The high was at $64.83. The low was at $61.05. Last Friday the price closed at $63.68.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying:

• Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
• Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs.
• He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying:

• Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
• Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs.
• He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump says:

• Will Not drop China tariffs unless they give us something
• Opening up China would be a big win

The NASDAQ index moved from 17385 to 17299. The price is currently trading at 17326, up 159 points or 0.92%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking and says:

• We will be reasonable on tariffs.
• Thinks markets are adjusting to tariff policy.
• Gaza came up with talk with than Yahoo. Told him to be good to Gaza and to take care of feeding in medicine for Gaza
• Iran situation going well. Dealing with highs levels in Iran

Trump is heading to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis tomorrow. He also has said that many world leaders are looking to speak with him there.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos of the WSJ is tweeting that comments from Fed’s Hammack on Thursday are not really saying a June rate cut is forthcoming. The qualifier is “if”. Whenever there is an “if” it means a condition or more likely conditions still need to happen and they can be for than one, a couple or a few…

His full tweet:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.