The post Ex-Dividend 1/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.08%, Shanghai Composite up 0.52%, Hang Seng up 0.25% ASX down 0.06%
• Commodities : Gold at $3,894.40 (1.14%), Silver at $47.35 (0.61%), Brent Oil at $66.26 (-0.20%), WTI Oil at $63.02 (-0.37%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.145, UK 10-year yield at 4.7000, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7062

News & Data:

• (USD) Pending Home Sales m/m 4.0%  to 0.2% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by overnight gains on Wall Street and growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. Recent data showed U.S. consumer price inflation rose in line with forecasts for August, strengthening bets on a policy shift. However, sentiment was capped by concerns over a potential partial U.S. government shutdown from October 1, as lawmakers struggle to agree on temporary funding measures.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 inched toward the 8,900 level, with gains in mining and technology stocks offset by losses in energy and financials. BHP and Rio Tinto advanced nearly 2 percent each, while energy majors like Woodside and Santos slipped over 2 percent. Tech names such as Block and Xero gained more than 1 percent. Economic data showed building permits slumped 6 percent in June, far weaker than forecasts, while private sector credit rose 0.6 percent in August, matching expectations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower, extending losses from earlier sessions as weak industrial output and retail sales weighed on sentiment. Automakers Honda and Toyota fell nearly 2 percent, while SoftBank and Fast Retailing also traded lower.

Elsewhere in Asia, Indonesia and Taiwan gained over 1 percent, while China, South Korea, and Malaysia slipped slightly. On Wall Street, all three major indexes closed higher Monday, while oil prices tumbled nearly 4 percent amid oversupply concerns.

Upcoming Events: 

• 04:30 AM GMT – AUD Cash Rate
• 02:00 PM GMT – USD JOLTS Job Openings

The post Tuesday 30th September 2025: Asian Markets Mixed as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise, U.S. Shutdown Concerns Loom first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 97.79

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 97.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 98.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1727

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1658

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1818

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 174.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 173.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 174.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8713

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8669
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8763
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8 Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3460

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3330
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3533
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could continue to make bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 200.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 199.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 201.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounce off the pivot and could continue to make a bullish risen toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7952

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7952
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8031
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 148.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 147.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 149.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3881

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3829

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3991

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is upported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6582

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6530

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6637

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5805

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5744

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5883

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a bullish move toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 46,123.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 45,765.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,704.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,479.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,317.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,873.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,630.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,557.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,696.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 114,369.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 111,937.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 117,692.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,277.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 4,069.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,455.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 64.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 62.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 68.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,784.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,724.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,840
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 30th September 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 September 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session was driven by central bank signals and signs of divisive global growth, with gold rallying on U.S. shutdown fears, oil retreating on supply concerns, and Asia equity indices mixed in response to cautious Chinese data and RBA policy steadiness. The most impacted instruments included gold, oil, the AUD, regional stock indices, and government bonds, reflecting market risk dynamics and macro uncertainty.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders should pay special attention to the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, major data releases (especially U.S. jobs and confidence surveys), ECB commentary, and evolving macro sentiment in Europe and the U.S. These drivers may shift equity, forex, and commodity market directions during the start of the European and U.S. sessions.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

President Trump Speaks (3:00 pm GMT

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is under pressure due to fiscal policy uncertainty, increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, and markets bracing for the impact of possible government shutdown disruptions later this week. Today’s sentiment is largely defensive, with softer USD performance against leading currencies and heightened focus on congressional negotiations and upcoming US data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

President Trump Speaks (3:00 pm GMT

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold surged to all-time highs on Tuesday, 30th September 2025, exceeding $3,850 per ounce and making September its strongest month in 14 years, largely driven by safe-haven demand amid fears of a looming US government shutdown and growing expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. The rally has been supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of easier monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German Prelim CPI m/m (5:30 am GMT)

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (12:50 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Eurozone economic growth remains sluggish but stable, with inflation showing positive signs and monetary policy expected to remain unchanged. Politically, security and environmental issues are shaping the broader landscape for the Euro. Eurozone inflation is near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. ECB President Lagarde recently expressed confidence that inflation will remain stable and signaled that interest rates are likely to stay steady, with rate cuts not expected in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its September 11, 2025, meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook..
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as maturities have ceased to be reinvested. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc remains stable and resilient, supported by a steady SNB policy, low inflation, and safe-haven flows. However, risks from US tariffs and sluggish foreign demand cast a shadow over future growth, and exporters remain vulnerable to external shocks. Market participants expect little change in policy or direction unless there is a major global market event or escalation in trade tensions. Over the past month, CHF has strengthened by roughly 0.33% against the USD and has moved up by more than 5% over the last 12 months, reflecting ongoing safe-haven demand and Switzerland’s stable economic fundamentals.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labour market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound remains under mild pressure ahead of key US events and with little UK data, as markets continue to digest the impact of fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty. Volatility remains high as traders react to both US and European developments, with the GBP highly sensitive to broader macroeconomic trends and Bank of England commentary. Forecasts for the rest of 2025 remain cautious, with major institutions predicting a range-bound but choppy environment, subject to both UK policy and global headwinds.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the August rate cut. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing near £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened slightly against the U.S. Dollar today, Tuesday, September 30, 2025, trading around 1.3920 USDCAD, up 0.02% from the previous session. Several recent developments have influenced the currency, including modest Canadian GDP growth, softer domestic data, and expectations for continued U.S. Fed easing, which has dampened support for the greenback. Domestically, the Bank of Canada’s recent 25 bp rate cut to 2.5% remains a central theme, helping revive some housing market momentum but also lowering the attractiveness of fixed income assets for foreign investors.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.50% at its September 17 meeting, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.25%. This marks the first rate cut since early 2025, as the Bank responded to a string of softer inflation prints and persistent economic headwinds.
• The Council cited continued U.S. tariff volatility and slow progress on trade negotiations as major contributors to ongoing uncertainty. While headline tariffs have not escalated further, the unpredictability of U.S. policy remains a significant risk for Canadian exports and business confidence.
• Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and recurring tariff threats continued to weigh on growth prospects. The Bank flagged downside risks to the export sector, with survey data indicating ongoing hesitancy among manufacturers and exporters.
• After modest growth in Q1, Canada’s economy slipped into contraction, with GDP shrinking by 0.8% in Q2 and forecast to decrease again by 0.8% in Q3. Economic weakness has been most pronounced in manufacturing and goods-producing sectors affected by trade frictions and softer U.S. demand.
• Early estimates show that growth stabilized in September but remained well below the Bank’s 2% forecast for Q4. Manufacturing output has improved slightly—supported by a modest rebound in petroleum and mining activity—while consumer spending and retail sales were largely flat.
• Consumer spending remained subdued as households continued to limit discretionary purchases amid uncertainty and a slower job market. Housing activity stayed weak, despite earlier government efforts to boost affordability and modest gains in some real estate segments.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up to 1.9% in August, undershooting economist expectations but still showing emerging pressures from shelter and imported goods costs. Core inflation metrics were mixed, though price growth remains just below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed its cautious approach, emphasizing that while further rate cuts are possible, the pace will hinge on the path of U.S. tariffs, domestic inflation dynamics, and signs of a sustainable recovery. The Bank remains vigilant against the risk of inflation falling below target in the face of economic slack.
• The next meeting is on 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Monday’s oil market decline reflects growing concerns about an emerging supply glut as OPEC+ continues ramping up production while Kurdistan exports return to markets. Despite ongoing geopolitical supply disruptions from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure, the market is increasingly focused on oversupply risks heading into late 2025 and 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 September 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight, the U.S. financial markets were driven by shutdown risk, dovish Federal Reserve commentary, and selective corporate news, primarily impacting the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors and stocks tied to consumer trends . There were no major U.S. economic data releases overnight based on the most recent economic calendars; however, attention is sharply focused on the JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence releases scheduled for the upcoming session, as indicated in the economic calendar (your image shows expected releases for September 30, including JOLTS and CB Consumer Confidence).

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Traders in Asia should watch for early China PMI releases and the RBA rate announcement for immediate market direction, with uncertainty around the U.S. government shutdown lingering over risk assets and Dollar sentiment. All eyes are on whether data signals further stabilization in China and clues from the RBA on future rate paths. Stay alert to fast-moving news regarding U.S. fiscal negotiations and central bank commentary throughout the day.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

President Trump Speaks (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The latest news for the US Dollar centers around cautious trading as investors anticipate a possible US government shutdown, which could disrupt key economic data releases like the Friday jobs report. The Dollar remains under modest pressure due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, recent softness in labor market data, and a global “risk-on” sentiment. The JOLTS Job Openings data for August is due today, providing a fresh look at US labor market health, with forecasts aligning closely to July’s figures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

President Trump Speaks (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is experiencing record-breaking gains today due to intensified safe-haven flows, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty stemming from possible U.S. government shutdown and new tariffs. The broad consensus among analysts is for continued strength in gold unless political risks recede or Federal Reserve policy turns unexpectedly hawkish
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Cash Rate (4:30 am GMT)

RBA Rate Statement (4:30 am GMT)

RBA Press Conference (5:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar shows resilience and moderate strength today, buoyed by a softer US Dollar and improved Chinese industrial data, while traders remain cautious ahead of the RBA rate decision. Most analysts predict the central bank will hold its rate at 3.60%, as it weighs softer domestic credit growth and housing, persistent inflation, and global uncertainties.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation continues to trend within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labour demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labour costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) showed a modest rebound on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, rising to around 0.5782 against the U.S. Dollar after previously hitting multi-month lows. Despite this uptick, the overall sentiment remains bearish due to global risk aversion, strong U.S. dollar performance, and expectations for further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently under pressure against the US dollar due to policy uncertainty from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), weak domestic economic data, and ongoing trade tensions. On Tuesday, September 30, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate hovered near 148.7, with market participants digesting recent BoJ comments and disappointing retail sales and factory output figures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
• Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
• Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
• In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?Oil markets are highly focused on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend, with traders adjusting positions in anticipation of further supply-side pressures. The overall outlook remains cautious, with possible oversupply capping any rebound in prices despite ongoing geopolitical risks and selective cuts by major exporters. U.S. and Brent benchmarks each saw their most significant drops since June, following last week’s short-lived rally driven by geopolitical tensions such as continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher Again – Nasdaq up 0.5%

US stock markets pushed higher again in trading yesterday, led by the tech sector, despite the chance of a US government shutdown in the next couple of days. The Dow added 0.15% to 46,316, the S&P 0.26% to 6,661, and the Nasdaq rose 0.48% to 22,591. The dollar and yields pulled back in the face of the possible shutdown, the DXY off 0.22% to 97.94, while the 2-year yield fell 2.2 basis points to 3.621% and the 10-year dropped 3.7 basis points to 4.139%. Oil prices crashed on news of more production increases from OPEC+ in November, Brent off 3.54% to $67.65, and WTI down 3.93% to $63.14 a barrel. Gold surged again to fresh record levels, closing the day up 1.95% at $3,833.55 an ounce.

Gold Continues to Drive Higher

Gold continued its relentless march northwards in trading yesterday as it rose nearly 2% on the day to hit another fresh record high at $3,833.89. The world’s favourite precious metal has now gained over 9% in this month’s trading, and traders and analysts alike are still looking for clarity on what exactly is behind the move. Many feel that this is another huge portfolio reallocation going through from a major player, as even on days when you would have expected a strong fall—for instance, when the dollar has appreciated or geopolitical tensions have eased—gold has remained bid. For now, traders will go with the trend and look for buying opportunities in the market; however, there are some that are waiting for this flow to abate and will look to jump on these all-time levels in the hope of a significant correction.

Lively Calendar Day Ahead for Traders

The macroeconomic calendar kicks into action today, and traders are expecting volatility to remain elevated through to the end of the week and the key US Non-Farm data release. Chinese data is in early focus in the Asian session today, with Manufacturing PMI (exp. 49.6) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (exp. 50.3) numbers due out early in the session. The focus will then swing south to Australia for the RBA’s latest rate call, where they are expected to keep rates on hold at 3.60% as inflation remains sticky. German inflation data is in focus for the London session, with the individual states set to update the market throughout the session, the average month-on-month CPI expected at +0.2%. The New York session sees the first US jobs numbers of the week, with the JOLTS Job Openings expected to print at 7.19 mio, and Consumer Confidence numbers are out at the same time (exp. 96.0). We also hear from more central bankers across the course of the day, with the MPC’s Lombardelli, Breeden, and Mann scheduled, as well as Fed members Goolsbee and Collins.

The post General Market Analysis – 30/09/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/9/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to providing the best trading experience to our clients, we want to inform you there will be an adjustment in the trading schedule due to the Australia entering Daylight Saving on Sunday, 5 October 2025.

While trading, most products will remain unaffected; however, there will be a change in the trading hours of some products.

All times mentioned below are expressed as Platform time (GMT +3) except for cTrader (UTC).

MT4/5:

cTrader:

For any further assistance, please contact our Support Team.

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post Australian Daylight Saving: Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Earning Report first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex Dividend Stocks first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Headlines:

• Gold continues to sizzle to start the new week
• EUR/USD pulls back into a key trendline: has the US dollar already run out of energy?
• US futures continue to shrug off government shutdown concerns
• Fed’s Hammack: It is a challenging time for monetary policy
• ECB’s Makhlouf: We are near the bottom of the easing cycle
• BOJ’s Noguchi: Monetary policy entering a phase where careful assessment is needed
• Spain September preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expected
• Eurozone September final consumer confidence -14.9 vs -14.9 prelim
• China’s Communist Party set to hold its Fourth Plenum on 20-23 October
• Japan reaffirms that economy is recovering at a moderate pace in latest monthly report

Markets:

• JPY leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 4.152%
• Gold up 1.8% to $3,827.05
• WTI crude down 1.0% to $64.51
• Bitcoin flat at $112,130

There weren’t much notable headlines to kick start the new week, as markets are gearing towards some really big events on the calendar in the days ahead.

With a potential US government shutdown and non-farm payrolls data (possible to be delayed) looming large, there will be bigger fish to fry later this week. For now though, market players don’t seem all too concerned with perhaps month-end and quarter-end flows in focus as well.

The dollar is slightly weaker on the day but off the lows at least. EUR/USD is up just 0.1% to 1.1713 while USD/JPY is down 0.5% to 148.70 amid a drop in bond yields, while keeping the rejection near 150.00 from last week. Major currencies are not up to much in general, awaiting more key developments during the week.

In the equities space, stocks are holding up well as count down September trading. US futures are up, carrying over the gains from Friday as investors are brushing aside any possible concerns of a US government shutdown. Meanwhile, European indices are holding slight gains but nothing to really shout about on the day.

Once more, the standout mover is in the commodities space as we see precious metals soar higher yet again. Gold is up nearly 2% on the day in blowing past the $3,800 mark while silver is up over 2% in testing waters above $47 as buyers start to take aim at the 2011 highs. Up, up, and away!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Voting for the Finance Magnates Awards 2025 is now open as of September 29, 2025.

These annual awards recognise the very best in the global trading industry, shining a spotlight on the top forex brokers trusted by traders worldwide.

This is your chance to show support for the broker you trade with and ensure they get recognised in the category that best suits them.

Your vote makes a difference: community voting accounts for 50% of the final results, alongside the expert panel review.

Official Nominees: Forex Broker Brands

This year’s awards feature a strong lineup of forex broker nominees and fintech nominees competing across multiple categories.

Each nominee represents excellence in online trading and the industry is now invited to cast its votes.

How the Voting Process Works

The Finance Magnates Awards voting process combines both community voting and expert review.

Community Voting (50% of results):

• The global trading community can support their favourite forex broker brand in the B2C categories.

• Industry professionals can also vote in the B2B fintech awards (you need to login using a corporate email).

• This ensures both traders and professionals have an equal say in the results.

Expert Panel (50% of results): A panel of top industry experts will determine the other half of the results. Their evaluation ensures the winners are judged on performance, reliability, and innovation.

👉 Find out who the judges are for this year’s evaluation panel.

Voting Rules

To maintain transparency and fairness, all voters must follow the rules:

• Each person can vote only once.

• Cast one vote per brand in each award category per group.

• Each brand has been nominated in more than one category; however, voters should select the single category that best fits the brand.

• Voters with any email address can participate in the B2C Brokerage Group.

• Voters with a corporate email address are eligible to vote in both the B2C Broker Awards and the B2B FinTech Awards.

• Voters must log in to cast their votes.

• Each brand will only be recognised in the award category where it receives the most votes

👉 Cast your vote today for your favourite forex broker

How to Submit Your Vote

1) Log in to the Voting Portal at https://awards.financemagnates.com/voting/

2) Enter your email, select the checkbox to enable voting in both B2C and B2B, and click GET CODE.

3) Check your inbox for the code. If you don’t see it, please check your junk/spam folder. Enter the code and continue to start voting.

You need to cast your vote for each brand.

Please note: you can only select one category per brand.

If you vote for a second brand in the same category, the system will notify you that your previous vote will be replaced.

If you wish to support your 2nd option, you must go back and cast your vote for the first brand in a different category.

Once you define your votes for each brand, click Submit.

👉 Cast your vote today for your favourite forex broker

Why You Should Vote

Taking part in the Finance Magnates Awards 2025 voting gives you the chance to:

• Support your broker and show recognition for the services you value most.

• Shape industry recognition, as community votes carry 50% of the total outcome.

• Promote fairness by ensuring that the awards reflect both community voices and expert judgment.

• Highlight quality and trust in the financial services industry, giving visibility to brands that set high standards.

Your vote makes a difference and helps decide who will be recognised as the leaders of 2025.

This article was written by investingLive at investinglive.com.