WTI bulls still way below the 23.6% fibo of Oct’s glut, as OPEC delay output decisions until Friday

  • WTI is currently trading at $51.66bbls, that is up from a low of $50.23bbls and well below the high of the Asia session at $53.49bbls.  
  • The highly anticipated OPEC meeting drew no conclusions and leaves the price of oil at the bottom of the barrel with further downside likely from a technical and fundamental basis. 

Global growth concerns were once again sending markets into a risk-off mode where US futures hit the circuit breakers following revived risks over tensions between China and the US despite the recently agreed cease-fire that has now come under jeopardy. 

The arrest of the chief financial officer of the Chinese telecoms company, Huawei Technologies, by the Canadian authorities, who now faces extradition to the US over possible violations of sanctions against Iran, has encouraged a response from Beijing. China is requesting that both Canada and the US to “rectify wrongdoing”. Investors presume the worst and there are fears that not only will this break the conditions for a cease-fire on the trade tariff war, but the implications at stake at this juncture look dire to say the least for global economic growth and geopolitical relations. 

However, traders were also concerned that the meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday concluded without reaching an agreement on production cuts, head of a scheduled meeting on Friday between the cartel and nonmember oil producers on Friday. OPEC is expected to give further details on the size of a production cut on Friday, but there is scepticism in the market that there will not be enough of a production cut, and that leaves a downside bias for oil.

Nonfarm payrolls 

“FX likely to view payrolls with an asymmetric bias; USD has been stable despite aggressive Fed repricing so a payrolls beat should not impact the USD as much as a disappointment,” analysts at TD Securities explained. 

  • The US initial jobless claims are expected to reach 224K in the week ending November 30.

WTI levels

WTI’s lows were forced back into the descending channel, which resistance has now turned support since the price moved sideways out of it this month on profit-taking. However, bulls were still some way off from getting to where they really need to be, and that is up to challenge the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the recent rout from just below the 77 handle at 56. The 21-D SMA is now lower at 54.49 as first key resistance. The daily & weekly RSI remains above 30 which still gives the bulls a light at the end of the tunnel, depending on Friday’s outcome of the OPEC and non-OPEC producers meeting. The spanner in the works stays with the monthly RSI and DMI that remain bearish while the ATR is also tracking a strong trend to the downside also. To the downside, the 123.6% Fibo extension target comes in at the 43.90s while the June 2009 lows are nearby at 41.83. On the wide, the 161.18% Fibo extension target is situated at 33.77, and the Jan 2016 low is down at 26.03.