Market Outlook for the Week of August 15-19

Read full post at forexlive.com

There are no important events scheduled for Monday
that could significantly influence the FX market, but Tuesday we’ll have the
monetary policy meeting minutes for the AUD and the inflation data for the CAD.

Wednesday the focus will be on the NZD where we’ll have the Official Cash Rate
and the RBNZ press conference. The GBP CPI data is also expected, and the USD
retail sales are worth keeping an eye on. We’ll also have the FOMC meeting
minutes, but the meeting itself is not expected to be a very important one. On
Thursday the market’s attention will be on the AUD employment changes and the
unemployment rate.

Take note that summer
trading conditions are likely to make this a difficult week.

The CPI data for the
CAD will probably not be a market mover especially if it comes in line with
expectations. Year over year it’s expected to rise to 8.4% from 8.1%. Energy
prices have declined steeply which is likely to take some pressure off broader
pricing, but this is not enough evidence that inflation is cooling down. The
BOC will pay attention to this data, but the Governor signalled that inflation
might continue to rise before coming down.

We haven’t heard much
from the BOC since the last July hike. The market fully expects a 50bps hike,
but there’s also a 25% probability of a 75bp increase in September. However, if
the upcoming data will come better than expected, like the US CPI report did,
the likelihood of a 75bp hike will decrease.

RBNZ is expected to
deliver the 7th rate hike this week, but analysts from ING say there is “a
risk of dovish tilt”. Inflation data hasn’t shown signs of cooling down
and wages have been above expectations. This is a strong reason for further
rate hikes, but ING analysts think there are a few signs that might influence
the Bank’s decisions for a dovish approach: The economic outlook doesn’t look
promising, the consumer confidence is below the 2008 low and the labour market
saw an increase from 3.2% to 3.3%. China’s slowdown can also have a negative
impact and the housing market can weigh on the Bank’s decision as well as it’s
showing signs of slowing down.

The RBNZ is facing a
rapid contraction in house prices that brought the house price index down by
2.5% over the past three months — its biggest quarterly decrease since October
2008. There are multiple reasons for this, including the government’s policies
that have favoured new residential builds and a decrease in consumer demand for
housing due to weak confidence. The 2-year and 5-year fixed mortgage rates rose
120-130bp since December and 48% of existing loans are due to re-price over the
coming year. This puts great cost pressure on households, the ING analysts
said.

That being said, the Bank must avoid an unwanted impact on inflation
expectations, so it might keep rate projections unchanged for now and revise
them later in the year.

The German ZEW
Surveys are also expected this week and they’re worth keeping an eye on because
they reflect the economic activity in Germany and more broadly in the Eurozone.
For now, no improvement is expected, and the Eurozone is still likely heading
towards recession in the near future.

On Wednesday, the UK
CPI is expected to come above expectations again and keep in mind that the BOE
expects inflation to reach 13% in Q4 2022. Energy prices will continue to put
pressure as they’re expected to increase further due to limited exports from
Russia and supply shortages across the continent.

The Fed previously
stated they are data dependent, so after the strong labour market data and the
cool CPI last week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday are not expected to contain
anything significant. However, since Powell noted all participants have evolved
their rate views, any comments on the outlook will be key.

NZD/USD expectations

On the H4 chart the
trend is bullish and the pair closed the week near the 0.6470 level of
resistance. A correction is expected from that level. On the H1 chart, MACD is
forming a bearish divergence which could signal a bigger correction or a
potential change in the short-term trend. The next level of support is at
0.6335. If that level doesn’t hold, the next one is at 0.6225. On the upside
the next level of resistance is at 0.6550.

If the RBNZ is dovish
this week, it might favour a move to the downside. From a seasonality point of
view the NZD has been weak in August over the years. In the short term the
prospects are for a move to 0.6225 before a rebound, but surprises can always
happen in the FX market so take a closer look at this RBNZ meeting for more
clues.