General Market Analysis – 9/12/25

US Stocks Ease Ahead of the Fed Meeting – Dow off 0.45%

US markets eased lower in the latest session as traders grew increasingly wary ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve decision. With fears rising that the Fed may deliver a less dovish message than markets have priced in, risk appetite faded and equities shifted into reverse. The Dow led the declines, slipping 0.45% to 47,739, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.35% to 6,846, and the Nasdaq edged 0.14% lower to 23,545. The shift in expectations pushed the US dollar and Treasury yields higher once again; the DXY gained 0.12% to 99.10, while yields climbed across the curve, with the US 2-year rising 1.5 bps to 3.575% and the 10-year gaining 2.9 bps to 4.164%. Oil prices fell after reports confirmed Iraq had restored output at one of the world’s largest oilfields. Brent dropped 1.96% to $62.50, and WTI fell 2.05% to $58.65 a barrel. Gold also drifted lower, slipping 0.19% to $4,189.23 as higher yields and a stronger dollar reduced investor demand.

Dollar in Focus for FX Traders This Week
In a week full of interest rate calls from some major central banks, there is no doubt about which one will have the biggest effect on the major currency pairs. The RBA, Bank of Canada, and SNB will clearly have impacts on their respective currencies, and there will be good trading opportunities on the crosses, but for the majors, the Fed is likely to dominate moves into the year end and into 2026. Some market players are calling this one of the most contentious Fed meetings in recent times, with updates from various Fed members over the last few weeks adding much fuel to that fire. If we do get the expected cut, the forward guidance that we get from the Dot Plot, Statement, and Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference will be key, with the risk probably still sitting with a much less dovish FOMC for 2026 than the market is expecting and stock markets are hoping for.

Event Calendar Kicks into Action

Today marks the start of a busy few days on the macro front, with key updates from central banks and data due across all three trading sessions. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks off a packed week of central bank activity in the Asian session today; the market is firmly expecting rates to remain on hold, but traders are expecting plenty of volatility around the statement and press conference. Attention then shifts to Europe, where Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks in London, before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings later in the day, both events likely to spark moves in their respective currencies. The New York session sees the first major update out of the US for the week, with the JOLTS job openings data due out for both September and October, with the data offering another key insight into labour market tightness ahead of the Fed.

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