USD/JPY Forecast: Consolidating weekly losses

USD/JPY Current price: 104.65

• Japanese National inflation beat expectations but remained within negative levels.
• US business activity expected to have remained in expansion territory in October.
• USD/JPY retains its bearish stance despite a modest bounce from weekly lows.

The dollar is down across the board amid a better market mood and upbeat data elsewhere. The USD/JPY pair is no exception, although its decline is moderated due to the better sentiment, trading around 104.60. Japanese data published at the beginning of the day was generally encouraging, as the National CPI ex-Fresh Food declined by 0.3% YoY, better than the expected -0.4%. Also, the preliminary estimate of the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 48, improving from 47.7.

The US session will bring the preliminary estimates of the October Markit PMIs. Services output is foreseen steady at 54.6 while manufacturing activity is seen expanding from 53.2 to 53.4.

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair is technically bearish in the near-term. The 4-hour chart shows that it continues developing below a firmly bearish 20 SMA, which remains below the larger ones. Technical indicators in the meantime, continue to consolidate near oversold readings. The slump will likely accelerate once below 104.30, the immediate support level.

Support levels: 104.30 103.95 103.50

Resistance levels: 105.00 105.40 105.80

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