Is the US pandemic benefits expiration starting to bite?


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Some real-time numbers are sagging

A surprise political shift today came from the White House, which encouraged Senate Republicans to give ground on a stimulus deal with Democrats. Could that be because they’re seeing signs of economic weakness creep in?

Pantheon today shows a few charts that show some very early evidence that might be the case:

Some real-time numbers are saggingRestaurant, airline, hotel and mobility data all had a Labor Day bump but is now largely below August levels. That could be a holiday effect but it’s something worth watching.

JPMorgan’s card spending data is still above August levels but it’s also cooled in the past week and is 20% below Feb levels.

US card spending