Gold is up $18 today to $1755 and briefly broke then mid-March high of $1755.50. A close above that level is key for the next move in gold.
If confirmed, it would signal the double bottom at $1680, which was touched for a second time last week. The measured target of the move is $1840, which is another 4.3% from here.
Anecdotally, sentiment around gold has gotten negative fast. I’d even classify some of it as exhaustion or disinterest. Some evidence of that is that implied volatility is at the lowest in a year.
On the fundamental side, the Fed is going to be a big player for gold. If you believe the Fed will be true to its word and hold rates through an inflationary pop, then it will ultimately benefit gold.
For now though, the technical trade is the right one. It’s on the edge right now and I’d go with the next move to either $1840 or back to $1676 (and below).