The euro climbs to the highs of the day. No dovish magic from Lagarde

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There’s nothing new from the ECB

The ECB today is a bit of a non-event. Of course, there’s always the chance they pull some kind of rabbit out of the hat (or a dove out of the hat, as it were). But there’s really nothing here, and everyone can continue to price rates at rock bottom levels forever.

The euro chart is much more interesting to me than the fundamentals. The steady stream of downbeat news and renewed delta cases hasn’t been able to crack the March low. And the March low as above the Oct/Nov double bottom.

There's nothing new from the ECB 

You start to get the sense that there’s no one left to sell this thing.

At the same time, the vaccination drive marches on and there is some pent-up demand there. The reopening everywhere has been positive and even if it’s delayed in Europe, it’s coming.

Moreover, with support at 1.1700, there’s a natural stop there so the risk-reward begins to look enticing.

At the top of the hour, one indicator to watch is the July flash consumer confidence. It was at -3.3 in June.

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