IEA: Gas-to-oil switch may add 500k bpd to demand over six months

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“Energy crisis has prompted a switch to oil that could boost demand by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd),” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly oil market report released on Thursday.

Key takeaways

Natural gas, LNG and coal shortage could keep oil market in deficit to end of year at least.

Oil supply has resumed uptrend as OPEC+ unwinds production cuts, US recovers from hurricane Ida and maintenance winds down.

High energy prices could add to inflation that, along with power outages, lowers industrial activity and slows growth.

OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 23 mln barrels in September and are at their lowest since march 2015.

OPEC+ effective spare capacity could fall below 4 mln bpd by q2 2022 from 9 mln bpd in q1 2021.

Shrinking global spare capacity underscores need for increased investment to meet future demand.

Oil demand will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022, rising 3.3 mln bpd to 99.6 mln bpd.

Revises 2021 and 2022 oil demand forecast upwards by 170,000 bpd and 210,000 bpd respectively.

OPEC+ on track to pump 700,000 bpd below estimated demand for its crude in q4 2021.

Implied third-quarter refined product balances show the largest draw in eight years.