AUD/USD Forecast: Lower lows hint at a new leg south

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AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7188

  • Australian Retail Sales are foreseen at 2.5% in October, up from the previous 1.3%.
  • AUD/USD edged lower despite a quiet American session due to a US holiday.
  • The AUD/USD pair could retest the year low at 0.7105 and even break below it.

The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.7179, its lowest since September 30, to settle a few pips above such a low, down for a second consecutive day. The aussie came under selling pressure during the Asian session, undermined by the poor performance of local equities and dismal Australian data. Q3 Private Capital Expenditure contracted by 2.2% worse than the -2% expected.

On Friday, Australia will publish October Retail Sales, foreseen at 2.5%, up from 1.3% in the previous month. The US macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer in the middle of the Thanksgiving weekend.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair kept posting lower lows and lower highs on a daily basis, a sign of prevalent selling interest. In the daily chart, the 20 SMA is crossing below the 100 SMA, both in the 0.7340 area, while technical indicators hold near oversold readings, the RSI heading south and the Momentum flat.

The 4-hour chart shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside, as the pair keeps developing below a firmly bearish 20 SMA, which stands below the longer ones. Technical indicators are flat within negative levels, reflecting the current quietness rather than hinting at bearish exhaustion. The bearish case could be firmer if the pair breaks below 0.7169, September monthly low.

Support levels: 0.7170 0.7135 0.7105

Resistance levels: 0.7225 0.7270 0.7310  

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD