AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Challenges bear cross on upbeat Aussie Q4 inflation

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  • AUD/JPY extends the week-start rebound from late December lows.
  • Receding bearish bias of MACD joins firmer data to favor bulls.
  • Australia Q4 CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed forecasts and prior, NAB data came in softer for December.
  • Death cross keeps sellers hopeful, three-week-old resistance line adds to the upside filters.

AUD/JPY justifies strong Australia inflation data by refreshing intraday top around 81.80, currently up 0.25% intraday, during early Tuesday.

In doing so, the cross-currency pair stretches the previous day’s bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of December-January upside, around 80.90.

That said, Australia’s fourth quarter (Q4) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 1.0% forecast and 0.8% QoQ to 1.3% while the YoY figures crossed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) SOMP projections to 3.5%, versus 3.2% expected and 3.0% prior. Further, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed 0.7% market consensus with 1.0% figures on QoQ while also rising past 2.4% YoY forecast to 2.6%.

Read: Breaking: Aussie CPI comes in hotter and lifts AUD over 26 pips off the bat

Other than the fundamentals and 61.8% Fibo, The corrective pullback also gains support from the receding bearish bias of the MACD.

Even so, a bear cross between the 50-SMA and 200-SMA keeps sellers hopeful until the quote stays below 82.45.

Also acting as an upside hurdle is a descending resistance line from January 05, near 82.70.

Alternatively, pullback moves may aim for the key Fibonacci level retest, near 80.90, a break of which will strengthen the bearish approach towards the 80.00 threshold. Following that, December’s low near 78.80 will be in focus.

AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further recovery expected