War in Ukraine to fuel inflation fears – ING

The war in Ukraine is a tragedy. Economists at ING take a first look at the sanctions and broader possible economic implications from the sanctions and the war.

The potential economic impact of the war

“In the shorter run, disruptions to the energy and commodity supply will weigh on growth and push up inflation for longer. Particularly in Europe, the risks of stagflation have increased.”

“For the European Central Bank, but also for other central banks, this new situation is likely to slow down or delay policy normalisation. At the ECB’s meeting next week, any hints of rate hikes are out of the question. We expect the ECB to avoid tying its hands in any direction; still announcing a taper, while not ruling out new easing of monetary policy if needed.”