US yields doing the Fed’s fight for them

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The U.S. Treasury auctioned off $13 billion of 20 year notes today with strong domestic demand. The bid to cover was well above the 6 month average. Nevertheless, yields have continued to move higher and are trading near the highs for the day.

A snapshot the market currently shows

  • 2-year yield 5.107%, up 4.3 basis points
  • 5-year yield 5.222% +6.0 basis points
  • 10-year yield 4.368% +5.0 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.433% +3.8 basis points

The FOMC will meet tomorrow at 2 PM, with expectations of no rate change. At their last meeting on July 26, they raise rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. Since then yields have moved higher across the curve and trade near or at multiyear highs.

  • 2-year yield has moved from 4.85% to 5.105% up 25.5 basis points
  • 5-year yield has moved from 4.118% to 4.519%, up 40.1 basis points
  • 10-year yield has moved from 3.871% to 4.365%, up 49.4 basis points
  • 30-year yield has moved from 3.937% to 4.431%, up nearly 50 basis points

So although the Fed may keep rates unchanged, the market has done the tightening for the Fed.