USD: There is no reason for excessive pessimism – Commerzbank

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The USD-weakness continued again on Monday. How much further this downside correction can continue? Economists at Commerzbank analyze Dollar’s outlook.

USD correction is probably justified

USD correction is probably justified, as a lot of optimism had already been priced in. There is no reason on the other hand for excessive pessimism as regards USD. In particular, as the economy probably looks worse in other regions. For example, in the Eurozone.

If the economic outlook remains subdued, speculation on the market that the ECB will lower interest rates next year is likely to continue, which might limit an uptrend in EUR/USD.