ADP August employment +99K vs +145K expected

This is the lowest reading since January 2021, albeit barely.

• Prior was +122K (revised to +111K)
• Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.8% vs 4.8% prior
• Job-changers’ pay gains 7.3% vs 7.2% prior
• Service-providing sector added 72K jobs, goods-producing sector up 27K
• Construction (+27K) and education/health services (+29K) led gains
• Professional/business services saw largest decline (-16K)

The evidence is beginning to mount that the US jobs market is cooling. Here’s a reminder of what Powell said at Jackson Hole.

“The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized
growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which
is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown.”

The US dollar has fallen 15-20 pips across the board following the data and Fed pricing shows 112 bps in cuts this year compared to 110 before the data. Pricing for 50 bps at the Sept meeting is at 47%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.