{"id":425978,"date":"2026-01-29T23:50:10","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T16:50:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/01\/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-4-2-vs-5-4-previously\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T23:50:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T16:50:10","slug":"atlanta-fed-gdpnow-4-2-vs-5-4-previously","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/01\/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-4-2-vs-5-4-previously\/","title":{"rendered":"Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4.2% vs 5.4% previously"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Some of the dumbest people in the world have been running around touting the 5.4% forecast from the Atlanta Fed as if it was a real economic number.<\/p>\n<p>Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to throw cold water on it yesterday, highlighting that Q1 GDP was negative and that the US was on track for 2-3% GDP growth this year.<\/p>\n<p>What made the cheerleading particularly preposterous is that it was based on thinned out US economic data due to the US government shutdown. It was also highly leveraged to a one-month improvement in October trade balance.<\/p>\n<p>Guess what? That month-month reversed in November and suddenly the GDP forecast is down to 4.2%.<\/p>\n<p>Now I think it will still be a good quarter but we also need to wait on inventory data. The correlate to lower imports is often inventory drawdowns and that&#8217;s often a big drag on GDP forecasts that&#8217;s also not (yet) in the GDPNow estimate. Moreover, if we get a December trade balance number like the latest one, we&#8217;ll be on a 3-handle.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the Atlanta Fed:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent<br \/>\n on January 29, down from 5.4 percent on January 26. After this<br \/>\nmorning\u2019s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of<br \/>\nEconomic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real<br \/>\ngross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 7.1 percent<br \/>\n was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter<br \/>\npersonal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent<br \/>\n and the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth<br \/>\nfrom 1.88 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The next update is due Monday.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some of the dumbest people in the world have been running around touting the 5.4% forecast from the Atlanta Fed as if it was a real economic number. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to throw cold water on it yesterday, highlighting that Q1 GDP was negative and that the US was on track for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-425978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=425978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425978\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=425978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=425978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=425978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}