{"id":427876,"date":"2026-03-04T07:40:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T00:40:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/03\/australian-q4-gdp-0-8-vs-0-6-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T07:40:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T00:40:23","slug":"australian-q4-gdp-0-8-vs-0-6-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/australian-q4-gdp-0-8-vs-0-6-expected-427876\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Q4 GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior quarter was +0.4% <\/li>\n<li>Real GDP y\/y +2.6% vs +2.2% expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior y\/y GDP was +2.1%<\/li>\n<li>Final consumption expenditure +0.5% vs +0.6% prior<\/li>\n<li>GDP chain price index +1.4% vs +0.8% prior<\/li>\n<li>Gross fixed capital expenditure +0.7% vs +3.0% prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is a good report, though there has been little reaction from AUD.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Australia just dropped a Q4 GDP print that blew past expectations and puts the recovery story front and centre.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">After flirting with stall speed through mid-2024 \u2014 when quarterly growth scraped down to barely 0.1% \u2014 the rebound has been real. Growth stepped up through early 2025, printing around 0.4\u20130.5%, before surging to roughly 0.7% around the middle of the year. The latest read has cooled back to 0.4%, but the trend is still comfortably above the 2024 lows.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">In the latest report, year-on-year growth came in at 2.6% against a consensus 2.2%, a meaningful beat that accelerated from the prior quarter&#8217;s 2.1%. For an economy that was barely registering a pulse back in mid-2024, that&#8217;s a strong trajectory and it&#8217;s going to make life interesting for the RBA.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Under the hood though, it&#8217;s not all green. Final consumption expenditure slowed to 0.5% from 0.6% \u2014 not a disaster, but it shows households are still being careful despite the improving macro backdrop. The consumer isn&#8217;t leading this charge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Meanwhile the GDP chain price index jumped to 1.4% from 0.8%, which is going to catch the RBA&#8217;s attention. Stronger growth and firmer prices is not the combination that opens the door to rate cuts. If anything, this print increases the likelihood of further rate hikes and sooner.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">AUD\/USD was last down 15 pips on the session to 0.7019.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior quarter was +0.4% Real GDP y\/y +2.6% vs +2.2% expected Prior y\/y GDP was +2.1% Final consumption expenditure +0.5% vs +0.6% prior GDP chain price index +1.4% vs +0.8% prior Gross&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-427876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=427876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427876\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=427876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=427876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=427876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}