{"id":428561,"date":"2026-03-16T21:25:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T14:25:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/03\/us-march-nahb-housing-market-index-38-vs-37-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T21:25:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T14:25:10","slug":"us-march-nahb-housing-market-index-38-vs-37-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-march-nahb-housing-market-index-38-vs-37-expected-428561\/","title":{"rendered":"US March NAHB housing market index 38 vs 37 expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior was 36<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH\">Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH\">Prospective buyers 25 vs 22 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH\">Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 46 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The headline number has been sliding \u2014 the index fell to 36 in February, down from 37 in January, which itself dropped from 39 in December. That&#8217;s now 22 consecutive months below the 50 line that separates positive from negative builder sentiment, and it came in below the consensus forecast of 38.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">I&#8217;m surprised to see improvement in this survey given higher oil prices and borrowing costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The main culprit is affordability. High price-to-income ratios, elevated land and construction costs, and mortgage rates that \u2014 while improving \u2014 remain well above pandemic-era levels are all weighing on demand. NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes noted that the upper end of the market is holding up, but the lower and mid-range segments are really feeling the squeeze, with downpayments especially challenging.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">On the incentive front, 36% of builders cut prices in February, actually down from 40% in January and the lowest share since May. The average price reduction held at 6%. Broader sales incentives were used by 65% of builders, marking the 11th straight month above 60%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">There&#8217;s a bit of a silver lining: mortgage rates fell to about 6.06% in mid-January, the lowest in three years, and NAHB&#8217;s chief economist Robert Dietz pointed to easing inflation as a path toward further rate relief.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">One interesting disconnect \u2014 despite the weak sentiment data, homebuilder stocks (via the XHB ETF) actually hit a record in mid-February, suggesting the equity market is looking past near-term headwinds toward eventual rate cuts and favorable demographics.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was 36 Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 25 vs 22 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 46 prior The headline number&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-428561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=428561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428561\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=428561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=428561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=428561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}