{"id":428745,"date":"2026-03-19T19:40:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T12:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/03\/us-march-philly-fed-business-index-18-1-vs-10-0-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T19:40:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T12:40:18","slug":"us-march-philly-fed-business-index-18-1-vs-10-0-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-march-philly-fed-business-index-18-1-vs-10-0-expected-428745\/","title":{"rendered":"US March Philly Fed business index +18.1 vs +10.0 expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior was +16.3<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Details:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">New orders 8.6 vs 11.7 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Shipments 22.2 vs 0.3 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unfilled orders -4.7 vs -12.9 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Delivery times 18.9 vs -9.9 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Inventories 1.4 vs -0.2 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prices paid 44.7 vs 38.9 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prices received 21.2 vs 16.7 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Number of employees 0.8 vs -1.3 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Average employee workweek 2.8 vs -11.6 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Six-months from now indicators:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">6 month index 40.0 vs 42.8 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Capex index 6-month forward 25.8 vs 14.4 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">New orders 49.6 vs 54.1 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Shipments 53.6 vs 47.4 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unfilled orders 15.3 vs 21.4 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Delivery times -4.7 vs 26.1 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Inventories 16.8 vs 12.4 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prices paid 53.7 vs 54.1 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prices received 38.4 vs 50.1 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Number of employees 40.4 vs 14.9 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Average employee workweek 24.1 vs 27.7 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This latest report has rebounded nicely despite the jump in energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>A special question asks about Q1 production compared to Q4 2025 and 51.8% of firms report an increase and 29.6% report a decrease. However on the &#8216;increase&#8217; side there are 25.9% of firms showing an increase of 10% or more.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also known as the Philly Fed Index, is one of the earliest monthly indicators of manufacturing sector health in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it surveys manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Readings above zero indicate expanding activity, while readings below zero signal contraction. The survey is closely watched by economists and market participants because it often serves as a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing Index released later each month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The February data showed a notable deterioration from January across several key areas. New orders fell sharply from 14.4 to 11.7, while shipments collapsed from 9.5 to just 0.3, suggesting a significant slowdown in output. Unfilled orders worsened considerably, dropping from -4.8 to -12.9, and delivery times swung from a positive 7.3 to -9.9. On the labor front, employment flipped from a healthy 9.7 to -1.3, and workweeks plunged from 9.1 to -11.6. Price pressures eased modestly, with prices paid falling from 46.9 to 38.9 and prices received declining from 27.8 to 16.7. The forward-looking six-month index did rise from 25.5 to 42.8, offering some optimism, though capital expenditure plans dropped sharply from 30.3 to 14.4.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was +16.3 Details: New orders 8.6 vs 11.7 prior Shipments 22.2 vs 0.3 prior Unfilled orders -4.7 vs -12.9 prior Delivery times 18.9 vs -9.9 prior Inventories 1.4 vs -0.2 prior&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-428745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=428745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/428745\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=428745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=428745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=428745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}