{"id":429117,"date":"2026-03-31T19:41:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T12:41:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/03\/canada-january-gdp-0-1-vs-0-0-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T19:41:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T12:41:27","slug":"canada-january-gdp-0-1-vs-0-0-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/03\/canada-january-gdp-0-1-vs-0-0-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada January GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/canada-q4-gdp-06-vs-00-expected-20260227\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Prior <\/a>was +0.2%<\/li>\n<li>Q4 GDP was -0.6%<\/li>\n<li>Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a row<\/li>\n<li>Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged in January<\/li>\n<li> 9 of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Canada&#8217;s economy closed out 2025 on shaky ground, and today&#8217;s January monthly GDP release arrives at a moment of heightened uncertainty. Real GDP grew just 1.7% for the full year of 2025, the slowest annual pace since the pandemic-driven contraction of 2020, with lower exports to the United States acting as the primary drag. The fourth quarter proved particularly disappointing: output contracted 0.6% on an annualized basis, missing both the Bank of Canada&#8217;s projection for a flat reading and the consensus call for a modest 0.2% decline. A massive inventory drawdown by manufacturers drove the headline miss, though underlying domestic demand held up better, expanding at a 2.4% quarterly pace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The monthly data offered a slightly more encouraging signal heading into year-end. GDP by industry rose 0.2% in December, edging past expectations, but an advance estimate pointed to flat growth in January \u2014 suggesting the economy entered 2026 with limited momentum. Early readings indicated that a brief pickup in manufacturing activity proved short-lived, with the sector contracting again to start the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The broader backdrop remains complicated. Trade-related uncertainty weighed heavily on business investment throughout 2025, extending a decade of underinvestment that has contributed to Canada&#8217;s lagging productivity growth. The Bank of Canada, having cut rates by a full percentage point through 2025, held its policy rate at 2.25% in January 2026 and appears firmly set at neutral, leaving limited room for stimulus absent a clear deterioration. Consumer spending has been a relative bright spot, supported by real wage gains and earlier rate relief, but slowing population growth and a softening housing market pose headwinds. Today&#8217;s print will be closely watched for confirmation that the economy has stabilized \u2014 or for signs that the sluggish momentum carried into the new year is deepening.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was +0.2% Q4 GDP was -0.6% Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a row Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged in January 9 of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January. Canada&#8217;s economy closed out 2025 on shaky ground, and today&#8217;s January monthly GDP release arrives at a moment of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-429117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=429117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=429117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=429117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=429117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}