{"id":429668,"date":"2026-04-20T19:40:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T12:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/canada-march-cpi-2-4-y-y-vs-2-6-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-04-20T19:40:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T12:40:15","slug":"canada-march-cpi-2-4-y-y-vs-2-6-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/canada-march-cpi-2-4-y-y-vs-2-6-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada March CPI +2.4% y\/y vs +2.6% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior was +0.5%<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">CPI m\/m +0.9% vs +1.1% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior CPI m\/m +0.5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Core measures:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">BOC core 2.5% vs 2.3% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">BOC core m\/m +0.2% vs +0.4% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Core CPI 0.0% m\/m +0.2% vs prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">CPI median +2.3% vs +2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%)<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">CPI trim +2.2% vs 2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%)<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">CPI common 2.6% vs 2.4% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Gasoline prices +5.9% vs -14.2% y\/y prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Gasoline prices +21.2% m\/m vs +3.6% m\/m prior &#8212; the largest one-month increase on record<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Shelter +1.7% vs +1.5% y\/y prior <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Canadian inflation reaccelerated in March, with headline CPI climbing to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February. The jump was entirely an energy story, and a predictable one at that. Gasoline prices surged 21.2% on a monthly basis \u2014 the largest one-month increase on record \u2014 as the Middle East conflict sent crude sharply higher. Strip out gasoline and the picture looks very different: CPI ex-gasoline actually decelerated to 2.2% from 2.4%, pointing to underlying disinflation that remains very much intact.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The core measures are where the real story lies, and they undershot expectations across the board. CPI-trim fell to 2.2% from 2.3%, CPI-median held at 2.3%, and while CPI-common ticked up to 2.6%, the trend in the Bank of Canada&#8217;s preferred gauges is unmistakably toward target. Monthly core momentum also softened, with BOC core m\/m at just +0.2% after +0.4% prior. Given the scale of the energy shock, the failure of core to blow through expectations is genuinely encouraging and suggests the pass-through from gasoline to broader prices has been limited so far.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The GST\/HST base-year noise is finally behind us. March was the last month distorted by the tax holiday that ran from December 2024 to February 2025, and the unwind pulled restaurant meal inflation down to 3.2% from 7.8%. From April onward, policymakers will finally get clean year-over-year comparisons \u2014 though the removal of the consumer carbon levy in April 2025 will also fall out of the 12-month window, which will push energy readings higher again next month, though that&#8217;s counteracted by a new 10-cent per litre fuel tax holiday that starts today and runs until September.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">For the Bank of Canada, this is a complicated but ultimately reassuring report. Headline will stay noisy as long as Middle East tensions persist, but the core story supports the case that inflation is converging toward 2%. The loonie should take this as mildly dovish though it&#8217;s certainly overshadowed by the Middle East today.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was +0.5% CPI m\/m +0.9% vs +1.1% expected Prior CPI m\/m +0.5% Core measures: BOC core 2.5% vs 2.3% prior BOC core m\/m +0.2% vs +0.4% prior Core CPI 0.0% m\/m +0.2% vs prior CPI median +2.3% vs +2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%) CPI trim +2.2% vs 2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%) CPI common [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-429668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=429668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429668\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=429668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=429668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=429668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}