{"id":429715,"date":"2026-04-21T19:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T12:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/us-march-retail-sales-1-7-vs-1-4-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T19:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T12:40:06","slug":"us-march-retail-sales-1-7-vs-1-4-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/us-march-retail-sales-1-7-vs-1-4-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"US March retail sales +1.7% vs +1.4% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul class=\"list-bmN0_SHH list--padded-bmN0_SHH\">\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Prior was +0.6%<\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Ex-autos +1.9% vs +1.4% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Prior ex autos +0.5% <\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Ex autos and gas ++0.6% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.2%)<\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Control group +0.7% vs +0.2% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Prior control +0.5% <\/li>\n<li class=\"listItem-bmN0_SHH\">Retail sales y\/y +% vs +3.7% prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. That&#8217;s two solid data points today ahead of a Fed chairman-in-waiting who says he&#8217;s going to cut rates anyway. <\/p>\n<p>The control group reading of +0.7% m\/m matches the highest reading since last June.<\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 futures were up 26 points ahead of the report but little changed afterwards with the focus on Iran.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The US Census Bureau&#8217;s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report is one of the most closely watched gauges of consumer spending, capturing sales across brick-and-mortar stores, e-commerce, restaurants, and bars. Because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of US economic activity, the release typically moves markets and shapes expectations for GDP, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The data are seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, so nominal gains can overstate real purchasing power during periods of elevated prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">February 2026 data, released April 1, showed consumer spending holding up better than expected despite a softening labor market and lingering price pressures. Advance estimates put retail and food services sales at $738.4 billion, up 0.6% from January and 3.7% above February 2025. The result topped consensus forecasts of around 0.5% growth and marked a clear rebound from a weak start to the year \u2014 January&#8217;s initial reading of a 0.2% decline was revised to a slightly smaller 0.1% drop, while December 2025 came in essentially flat.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Over the three months from December through February, sales were up 3.1% from the same period a year earlier, suggesting moderate underlying momentum rather than a breakout. Food services and drinking places were a standout, rising 5.2% year-over-year, a sign that discretionary spending on dining out has remained resilient. Today&#8217;s release \u2014 March 2026 advance sales and February&#8217;s fuller monthly figures \u2014 was rescheduled from April 16 to April 21, 2026.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was +0.6% Ex-autos +1.9% vs +1.4% expected Prior ex autos +0.5% Ex autos and gas ++0.6% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.2%) Control group +0.7% vs +0.2% expected Prior control +0.5% Retail sales y\/y +% vs +3.7% prior Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. That&#8217;s two solid data points today ahead [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-429715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=429715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429715\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=429715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=429715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=429715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}