{"id":429904,"date":"2026-04-27T22:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T15:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/dallas-fed-april-manufacturing-index-2-3-vs-0-2-prior\/"},"modified":"2026-04-27T22:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T15:00:07","slug":"dallas-fed-april-manufacturing-index-2-3-vs-0-2-prior","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/dallas-fed-april-manufacturing-index-2-3-vs-0-2-prior\/","title":{"rendered":"Dallas Fed April manufacturing index -2.3 vs -0.2 prior"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior was -0.2<\/li>\n<li>Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior<\/li>\n<li>New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior<\/li>\n<li>Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior<\/li>\n<li>Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior<\/li>\n<li>Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior<\/li>\n<li>Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior<\/li>\n<li>The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">This is a much better-than-expected print on the activity side. Production jumped more than 12 points to 19.0, capacity utilization did basically the same thing, and shipments ripped from a near-flat 1.8 to 15.0. Those are big moves and they suggest Texas factories actually had a pretty good April once you get past the noisy headline. The general business activity index slipped a touch further into negative territory at -2.3, but the company outlook flipped positive and uncertainty came down meaningfully \u2014 firms are feeling better about themselves even if they&#8217;re still cautious on the broader picture.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The catch, as always lately, is prices, which continue to rise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Employment is still a touch negative and capex came off a little, so this isn&#8217;t a full-throated boom. But for a regional survey that&#8217;s been muddling along near zero for months, the production and shipments numbers are the standout. The trouble is the Fed has to look at finished-goods pricing this hot and decide whether the activity rebound is the story or the inflation pulse is.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">The comments are worth a scroll. The aluminum extruders are cheering Section 232 clarifications. The printers are, in their words, watching demand go &#8220;slower than we can recall in many years.&#8221; A food manufacturer flags &#8220;the long-term effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is yet to be felt&#8221; \u2014 which is the kind of sentence you really don&#8217;t want showing up in a regional Fed survey.<\/p>\n<p class=\"h6\">Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We are starting to see some upward pressure on prices,<br \/>\nespecially with food and anything with a significant energy cost<br \/>\ncomponent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Fabricated metal product manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Middle East conflict, and fuel prices add uncertainty to economic and demand outlook.<\/li>\n<li>April has returned back to flat, just as January and February were.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Food  manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Feeling good about the economy right now based on orders and future business.<\/li>\n<li>Continued decline in consumer segment purchasing power as<br \/>\nwell as disarray at the federal level is impacting our customers, input<br \/>\ncosts, supply chain and financial viability. The long-term effect of the<br \/>\n closure of the Strait of Hormuz is yet to be felt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Machinery  manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Times are good, backlog is building, prices are firm and<br \/>\nlife is better!  Thank the Lord for proactive leaders who understand<br \/>\nbusiness, deals and the economy. We are having many new business<br \/>\nopportunities, and it appears from our perspective that the economy is<br \/>\nstarting to improve.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Nonmetallic  mineral product manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Diesel fuel cost increases are raising transportation cost<br \/>\n for finished goods and raw materials. If they persist, we will have to<br \/>\nraise prices. We are currently absorbing the cost.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Paper  manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Prices of main raw materials are experiencing a 4-6<br \/>\npercent increase that will push an increase in our selling prices 30<br \/>\ndays from now. Demand does not seem to warrant these coordinated<br \/>\nincreases for our suppliers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Plastics and rubber products manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The geopolitical and war-related issues have significantly<br \/>\n increased our costs and delays in our supply chain as unusual supply<br \/>\nchain ramifications create havoc. Our retail supply business is very<br \/>\nvulnerable at this time. The unpredictable future is challenging, to say<br \/>\n the least.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Primary metal manufacturing<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>President Trump\u2019s proclamation a couple of weeks ago on<br \/>\nSection 232 tariffs cleared up ambiguity in the language that had<br \/>\nallowed some importers of aluminum to avoid paying the 50 percent tariff<br \/>\n on the full value of covered aluminum products. That clarification has<br \/>\nalready increased quoting activity with several companies, the majority<br \/>\nof them in the building and construction industry, as they begin<br \/>\nevaluating onshoring suppliers back into the United States. Our quote<br \/>\nactivity, along with new orders, has increased tremendously. The<br \/>\nindustry\u2019s efforts to protect and grow U.S. aluminum extrusion<br \/>\nmanufacturing jobs are beginning to show results. Our industry focus now<br \/>\n shifts to the USMCA renewal. If Mexico and Canada are granted<br \/>\nexemptions from Section 232 tariffs, it could be very detrimental to<br \/>\ndomestic producers, leading to lost jobs and potentially plant closures.<br \/>\n China and other Asian countries, along with Europe and South America,<br \/>\nbased on history, will use Mexico as a pathway to enter the U.S. market<br \/>\nat lower tariff ratesWe are actively working to ensure that does not<br \/>\nhappen again.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Printing and related support activities<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We are getting busy because of work we normally do this<br \/>\ntime of year.  As mentioned in the prior reports, demand has been slow<br \/>\nfor most of this calendar year. We are very worried about the short-term<br \/>\n and long-term effects of the Iran conflict and the chaos and<br \/>\nunpredictability coming out of Washington. Inflation is barreling full<br \/>\nsteam into prime rate increase territory, and no telling when fuel<br \/>\nprices will return to where they were. [Demand] continues to be soft and<br \/>\n slow, something we credit to the uncertainty in our economy right now.<\/li>\n<li>Demand has been considerably slow, slower than we can recall in<br \/>\nmany years. We continue to believe it\u2019s from the chaos and confusion<br \/>\ncoming out of Washington. In addition, now with the Iran war, prices are<br \/>\n going to shoot up due to shipping costs, and tariffs are still in<br \/>\neffect. So, there is no telling when business will start to improve. We<br \/>\nhave some nice work coming in soon, but it&#8217;s work we knew was coming.<br \/>\nWe are seeing some improvement in our estimating backlog, which is a<br \/>\ngood sign of better days to come. The war is causing a disruption of raw<br \/>\n materials prices as we are producing plastic-based products, and<br \/>\nvirtually all of our raw materials are hydrocarbon-based.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"h6\">Textile product mills<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>April is slower than March in terms of sales. We are also<br \/>\nwaiting longer for inventory [due to] both longer production lead times<br \/>\nand time spent at ports (for imported goods). Historically, we&#8217;ve seen a<br \/>\n seasonal pickup in Q3\/Q4 and are hoping 2026 has the same increase in<br \/>\nsales and production. There does seem to be additional uncertainty and<br \/>\nnegative outlook given higher energy prices and war overseas not going<br \/>\naway.<\/li>\n<li>Importing from China is precarious. The costs of product and<br \/>\nfreight are higher. Suppliers are apprehensive. Their costs are<br \/>\nincreasing, especially a certain raw material plastic impacted by<br \/>\npetrochemicals affected by cost of oil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was -0.2 Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022 This [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-429904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=429904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429904\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=429904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=429904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=429904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}