{"id":430023,"date":"2026-04-30T20:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T13:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/us-march-pce-inflation-3-5-y-y-vs-3-5-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T20:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T13:00:07","slug":"us-march-pce-inflation-3-5-y-y-vs-3-5-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/04\/us-march-pce-inflation-3-5-y-y-vs-3-5-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"US March PCE inflation +3.5% y\/y vs +3.5% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-february-pce-inflation-28-yy-vs-28-expected-20260409\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Prior<\/a> was 2.8%<\/li>\n<li>PCE m\/m +0.7% vs +0.7% expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior +0.4%<\/li>\n<li>Full report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2026\/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">here<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Core PCE (excluding food &amp; energy):<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Core y\/y +3.2% vs +3.2% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior was +3.0%<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Core m\/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior +0.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\">Consumer spending and income for February:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Personal income +0.6% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Personal spending +0.9% vs +0.9% expected. Prior month +0.5% (revised to +0.6%)<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Real personal spending +0.2% vs +0.1% prior (revised to +0.3%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The inflation figures are all as expected, so there&#8217;s nothing to see there. With Core PCE now well above 3.0%, you can see why some FOMC policymakers wanted to drop the easing bias.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed has been missing its 2% target since 2021 and the reluctance to adopt a clear hawkish bias kept the market in a dovish reaction function. Financial conditions never really tightened enough to bring inflation sustainably back to target. Inflation continues to run around 3% and the US-Iran war is expected to add more upward pressure.<\/p>\n<p>We also got the US jobless claims data at the same time and well, they are pointing to a reacceleration in the labour market. The US Employment Cost Index for Q1 has also surprised to the upside coming in at 0.9% vs 0.7% in the prior quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Following all the data release, US interest rate futures slightly increased odds of a rate hike by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was 2.8% PCE m\/m +0.7% vs +0.7% expected Prior +0.4% Full report here Core PCE (excluding food &amp; energy): Core y\/y +3.2% vs +3.2% expected Prior was +3.0% Core m\/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior +0.4% Consumer spending and income for February: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month -0.1% (revised to 0.0%) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-430023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=430023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=430023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=430023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=430023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}