{"id":430765,"date":"2026-05-21T15:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T08:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/05\/uk-economic-activity-slides-in-may-on-middle-east-conflict-political-turmoil\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T15:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T08:40:06","slug":"uk-economic-activity-slides-in-may-on-middle-east-conflict-political-turmoil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/05\/uk-economic-activity-slides-in-may-on-middle-east-conflict-political-turmoil\/","title":{"rendered":"UK economic activity slides in May on Middle East conflict, political turmoil"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Services PMI 47.9 vs 51.7 expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior 52.7<\/li>\n<li>Manufacturing PMI 53.7 vs 53.0 expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior 53.7<\/li>\n<li>Composite PMI 48.5 vs 51.6 expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior 52.6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">Ouch. That&#8217;s a big miss on the services print as business activity there falls to the lowest in 64 months. That&#8217;s leading UK economic activity to contract in May, with the composite print being the weakest in 13 months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">Service firms signaled the sharpest decline in business<br \/>\nactivity since January 2021 citing greater economic hesitancy and<br \/>\nweaker investment sentiment among clients, alongside<br \/>\ndelayed consumer spending decisions in response to the<br \/>\nMiddle East conflict. Aside from the Covid pandemic, the<br \/>\nlatest reading was the lowest for nearly a decade (July 2016).<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">As for the stronger manufacturing print, it&#8217;s mostly due to frontloading as a temporary demand pick up was noted to beat price hikes and<br \/>\npotential supply disruptions. So, the underlying negative impact from the Middle East conflict runs much deeper.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">On the prices front, input price inflation did ease slightly since April but<br \/>\nremained well above its long-run average. Meanwhile, prices charged by UK private sector firms continued to rise<br \/>\nsharply although at a slightly slower pace than the 39-month<br \/>\nhigh seen in April.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">Trouble, trouble. S&amp;P Global notes that:<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">\u201cThe UK economy is facing a perfect storm, as rising political<br \/>\nuncertainty adds to the growing impact from the war in the<br \/>\nMiddle East. Businesses are reporting falling output, surging<br \/>\ninflation, supply shortages and job cuts in May.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">&#8220;The May PMI data indicate that the economy contracted at<br \/>\na 0.2% quarterly rate, representing a marked contrast to the<br \/>\nrobust growth seen earlier in the year. The blame lies first and<br \/>\nforemost with the war in the Middle East, though companies<br \/>\nare also noting that domestic politics are taking an increasing<br \/>\ntoll, driving uncertainty higher, in turn deterring spending,<br \/>\nhiring and investment.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">&#8220;Things could well get worse in the coming months, as we<br \/>\nhave been seeing some support to manufacturing from<br \/>\nprecautionary stock building which will inevitably fade once<br \/>\nwarehouses are full.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">&#8220;Just as the economy shows signs of sinking into decline,<br \/>\nprices are surging higher to herald a marked upturn in<br \/>\ninflation in the months ahead as these costs pass through to<br \/>\nconsumers.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">&#8220;This combination of a faltering economy and spiking price<br \/>\npressures leaves the Bank of England in a major quandary,<br \/>\nfacing the growing need to hike rates to help contain inflation<br \/>\nbut thereby adding to recession risks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Services PMI 47.9 vs 51.7 expected Prior 52.7 Manufacturing PMI 53.7 vs 53.0 expected Prior 53.7 Composite PMI 48.5 vs 51.6 expected Prior 52.6 Ouch. That&#8217;s a big miss on the services print as business activity there falls to the lowest in 64 months. That&#8217;s leading UK economic activity to contract in May, with the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-430765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=430765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430765\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=430765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=430765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=430765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}