{"id":430932,"date":"2026-05-26T15:40:03","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T08:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/05\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-26-may-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T15:40:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T08:40:03","slug":"ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-26-may-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-26-may-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global \u2013 Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 May 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global \u2013 Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 May 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Hopes of a Middle East peace breakthrough lifted equities and pressured crude oil and the dollar, while Treasury markets stayed sensitive to Fed commentary and upcoming data rather than reacting to a major surprise release. In practical trading terms, the instruments most affected were oil, FX, and U.S. equity futures, with bonds reacting more modestly to rate expectations than to a fresh economic print.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Escalating Middle\u2011East\u2011linked supply\u2011chain risks, subtle shifts in US dollar and equity sentiment, and domestic\u2011policy signals from key regional central banks, all of which can tilt the region toward either cautious risk\u2011on positioning in equities and carry plays, or a defensive rotation into JPY, gold, and high\u2011quality bonds if geopolitical or data\u2011release risks flare up.<\/p>\n<p>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The U.S. dollar started the week on a stronger footing, lifted by renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates later this year as inflation pressures from higher energy prices persist. The dollar index has held near recent multi\u2011week highs, benefiting from higher U.S. Treasury yields and a cautious, risk\u2011off mood in global markets as investors weigh spillovers from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over trade and policy signals from Washington.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its April 28\u201329, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.<\/li>\n<li>The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026\u2014beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals\u2014and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.<\/li>\n<li>Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.<\/li>\n<li>Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.<\/li>\n<li>March 2026\u2019s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%\u20133.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.<\/li>\n<li>The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.<\/li>\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.<\/li>\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/XAUUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">Gold <\/a>is trading just above $4,500 per ounce, consolidating after a mid\u2011May dip and remaining sensitive to U.S.\u2011dollar moves and Fed\u2011rate expectations; while support near $4,455 is seen as a key technical line, the broader backdrop of geopolitical risk and central\u2011bank buying continues to underpin the metal\u2019s high\u2011valuation environment despite increased near\u2011term volatility.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Australian dollar has been strengthening in 2026, up more than 6% year-to-date and becoming the top-performing G10 currency as markets price in a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook, including an ~80% chance of a rate hike in May 2026 that could push the cash rate toward 4.10%. Recent trading has been cautious ahead of Australia\u2019s 2026 budget release, with the AUD hovering around 0.7230 against the USD in mid-May amid risk-off sentiment tied to US\u2013Iran tensions and anticipation of the Trump\u2013Xi meeting.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re\u2011accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re\u2011anchor the medium\u2011term outlook.<\/li>\n<li>The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8\u20131 vote, flagging that the stance is now \u201cmore restrictive\u201d and that the Council sees a low but non\u2011trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.<\/li>\n<li>Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year\u2011on\u2011year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed\u2011mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3\u20133.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2\u20133% target band.<\/li>\n<li>Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing\u2011related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing\u2011price\u2011related components, underpinning the case for a stronger\u2011than\u2011expected May hike.<\/li>\n<li>Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity\u2011price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import\u2011price and transport\u2011cost inflation.<\/li>\n<li>Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high\u2011probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services\u2011price data.<\/li>\n<li>The RBA continues to emphasise its \u201cdata\u2011dependent\u201d approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East\u2011driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.<\/li>\n<li>The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run\u2011of\u2011material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second\u2011round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour\u2011force data show a moderating trend.<\/li>\n<li>The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The New Zealand dollar is holding firmer versus the US dollar around 0.587\u20130.589, supported by mild risk\u2011on conditions and expectations that the RBNZ will remain relatively hawkish compared with a Fed anticipated to deliver fewer cuts, while the RBNZ\u2019s own concerns about exchange\u2011rate strength have kept gains in check and capped aggressive upside, leaving the kiwi in a cautiously constructive but still range\u2011bound environment.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand\u2019s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.<\/li>\n<li>The MPC continues its data-dependent \u201cwait-and-see\u201d approach after February\u2019s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation\u2019s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.<\/li>\n<li>Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food\/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.<\/li>\n<li>Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.<\/li>\n<li>Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.<\/li>\n<li>Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment\u2014including stronger dairy\/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar\u2014offsetting oil shocks and prior China\/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.<\/li>\n<li>Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity\/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.<\/li>\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/p>\n<p><\/strong>Suspected and reported intervention by Japanese authorities to stop the currency from weakening too far, and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in the coming months. That mix has produced sharp short-term rebounds in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USDJPY\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">yen<\/a>, but the broader mood remains cautious because traders still see the currency as vulnerable whenever dollar strength returns.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short\u2011term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27\u201328 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data\u2011dependent, gradual\u2011normalisation stance.<\/li>\n<li>The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage\u2011inflation persistence, yen stability, and real\u2011activity data rather than a pre\u2011announced timetable.<\/li>\n<li>JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by \u00a5400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to \u00a5200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly \u00a52\u20133 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid\u20112026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.<\/li>\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle\u2011East\u2011related shocks weigh on the pace.<\/li>\n<li>Core CPI (ex\u2011fresh food) is running in the mid\u20111% range y\/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y\/y in March 2026, while core\u2011core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services\u2011side and wage\u2011driven inflation.<\/li>\n<li>Input\u2011cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.<\/li>\n<li>Near\u2011term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran\u2011related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal\/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.<\/li>\n<li>Medium\u2011term, overseas recovery, labor\u2011shortage\u2011driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026\u20132027 if activity and wage\u2011inflation conditions remain aligned.<\/li>\n<li>The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Retail fuel prices are moving higher in some countries, and the underlying crude market is being supported by low inventories and supply-risk concerns, especially around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, analysts are watching whether elevated prices can hold if production and export conditions improve later in 2026.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-26-may-2026\/\">IC Markets Global \u2013 Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 May 2026<\/a> first appeared on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\">IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global \u2013 Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 May 2026 What happened in the U.S. session?Hopes of a Middle East peace breakthrough lifted equities and pressured crude oil and the dollar, while Treasury markets stayed sensitive to Fed commentary and upcoming data rather than reacting to a major surprise release. In practical trading terms, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":202,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-430932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/202"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=430932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430932\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=430932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=430932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=430932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}