{"id":431406,"date":"2026-06-03T17:00:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/06\/hawkish-fed-risk-continues-to-weigh-on-gold-as-us-iran-stalemate-drags-on-tensions-rise\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T17:00:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:00:12","slug":"hawkish-fed-risk-continues-to-weigh-on-gold-as-us-iran-stalemate-drags-on-tensions-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/06\/hawkish-fed-risk-continues-to-weigh-on-gold-as-us-iran-stalemate-drags-on-tensions-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Hawkish Fed risk continues to weigh on gold as US-Iran stalemate drags on, tensions rise"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\nOVERVIEW<\/p>\n

Gold is again on the backfoot as yet another rally on optimism gets faded. Tonight,
\nIran’s IRGC launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks targeting US military
\nbases across the Gulf, including an Air Base in Kuwait. Iranian officials
\ndescribed the strikes as retaliation for US actions against an oil tanker near
\nthe Strait of Hormuz and military operations on Qeshm Island.<\/p>\n

Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also reported attacks at
\nmultiple facilities hosting US personnel. According to US Central Command,
\nAmerican forces conducted “self-defense” operations, including
\nstrikes on targets on Qeshm Island in response to attempted attacks by Iran.<\/p>\n

The ceasefire continues to look weaker by the day but a full resumption of
\nthe conflict seems unlikely. The negotiating deadlock has been dragging on for
\na long time and oil prices are likely to remain persistently elevated until the
\nStrait of Hormuz is reopened.<\/p>\n

This keeps increasing the risk of a hawkish Fed. More and more policymakers
\nare now pushing for dropping the easing bias, so we can expect that to happen
\nat the upcoming FOMC meeting. Moreover, if nothing changes on the Strait of
\nHormuz side before then, we might get a hawkish surprise as inflation continues
\nto run hot and the US data remains resilient. <\/p>\n

In the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Strait will likely
\nsupport gold on falling oil prices and increased rate cut bets. But if the
\nStrait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, the risk of the
\nFed being forced to hike anyway increases, and that\u2019s going to keep weighing on
\ngold.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL
\nANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\nsee that gold is again consolidating as traders await new catalysts to push the
\nprice into either direction. We are trading right in the middle of the two key
\ntrendlines, so there\u2019s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need to
\nzoom in to see some more details.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\nHOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\nhave a key resistance zone around the 4,585 level where the price got rejected
\nfrom several times. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a
\nbetter risk to reward setup around the resistance and the downward trendline to
\nposition for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the
\nprice to break above the trendline to open the door for a rally into the 4,850
\nlevel next. <\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\nHOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we have
\na minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers
\nwill likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows,
\nwhile the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the pullback into the
\n4,490 zone. If the price pulls back into the zone, we can expect the sellers to
\nstep in there with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new
\nlows, while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into
\nthe 4,585 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have the US
\nADP report and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless
\nClaims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is again on the backfoot as yet another rally on optimism gets faded. Tonight, Iran’s IRGC launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks targeting US military bases across the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-431406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=431406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431406\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=431406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=431406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=431406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}