{"id":431859,"date":"2026-06-10T19:40:05","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T12:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/06\/us-may-cpi-4-2-vs-4-2-y-y-expected\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T19:40:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T12:40:05","slug":"us-may-cpi-4-2-vs-4-2-y-y-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/06\/us-may-cpi-4-2-vs-4-2-y-y-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"US May CPI +4.2% vs +4.2% y\/y expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Headline CPI:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior was +3.8%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">m\/m reading +0.5% vs +0.5% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Month-over-month unrounded +0.631% <\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unrounded headline +4.249% vs +3.811% prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\">Core measures:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Core CPI m\/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.4%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Core CPI y\/y +2.9% vs +2.9% expected. Last month was +2.8%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unrounded core +2.851% vs +2.750% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Real weekly earnings vs -0.2% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Shelter +0.3% vs +0.6% last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Shelter y\/y +3.4%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Services less energy services +0.3% m\/m vs +0.5% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Services less energy services y\/y +3.4%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Food +0.2% m\/m vs +0.5% m\/m prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Food +3.1% y\/y<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Energy +3.9% m\/m vs +3.8% m\/m prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Energy +23.5% y\/y<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Rents +0.4% m\/m vs +0.5% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Owner&#8217;s equivalent rent +0.3% vs +0.5% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Gasoline +7.0% m\/m vs +5.4% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Used cars and trucks +0.1% m\/m vs 0.0% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">New vehicles -0.3% m\/m vs -0.2% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Airline fares +2.7% m\/m vs +2.8% prior (+26.7% y\/y)<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Lodging away from home +0.4% m\/m<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Apparel +0.3% m\/m vs +0.6% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Medical care services +0.5% m\/m vs 0.0% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Medical care commodities -0.7% m\/m vs -0.4% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Hospital services +0.7% m\/m<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Motor vehicle insurance -1.7% m\/m vs +0.1% prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\">The headline number is ugly \u2014 4.2% is the hottest y\/y print since April 2023 and dangerously close to rounding to 4.3% \u2014 but the guts of this report argue against panic. Strip out the oil shock and core rose just 0.2%, the softest since February. Shelter decelerated to 0.3%, OER matched it, and motor vehicle insurance fell 1.7%. The inflation here is overwhelmingly a gasoline story: energy contributed more than 60% of the monthly gain. The problem is we&#8217;re now into mid-June and the war still isn&#8217;t over and appears to be getting worse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\">The Fed&#8217;s dilemma is whether to treat an oil-driven headline spike as something to hike against or look through. History says look through it, but with y\/y headed toward 4.5%+ as base effects compound, the pressure will be intense and it&#8217;s not like core is below target. Even compounding at +0.2% m\/m, it&#8217;s exceeding 2%. <\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\">Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in 11.7 bps of rate hikes for September and 25.3 bps for December. That&#8217;s virtually unchanged in the immediate aftermath.<\/p>\n<p>Can we hear from the White House&#8217;s Kevin Hassett, who said in December &#8220;\u201cIf inflation has gone from 2.5% to 4%, you can\u2019t cut rates then&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Headline CPI: Prior was +3.8% m\/m reading +0.5% vs +0.5% expected Month-over-month unrounded +0.631% Unrounded headline +4.249% vs +3.811% prior Core measures: Core CPI m\/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.4% Core CPI y\/y +2.9% vs +2.9% expected. Last month was +2.8% Unrounded core +2.851% vs +2.750% prior Real weekly earnings vs -0.2% prior [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-431859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=431859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431859\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=431859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=431859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=431859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}