{"id":432320,"date":"2026-06-17T15:16:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T08:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/06\/iea-sees-significant-overhang-in-oil-market-next-year\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T15:16:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T08:16:06","slug":"iea-sees-significant-overhang-in-oil-market-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/2026\/06\/iea-sees-significant-overhang-in-oil-market-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA sees &#8216;significant overhang&#8217; in oil market next year"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"text-align-justify\">World oil demand to fall by 1.1 mil bpd in 2026 amid US-Iran conflict (previous forecast 420k bpd drop)<\/li>\n<li class=\"text-align-justify\">World oil supply to fall by 3.9 mil bpd in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecast)<\/li>\n<li class=\"text-align-justify\">Sees 2027 supply growth of 8 mil bpd and demand growth of 2 mil bpd<\/li>\n<li class=\"text-align-justify\">That leaves a &#8216;significant overhang&#8217; of over 5 mil bpd in the oil market<\/li>\n<li class=\"text-align-justify\">US-Iran deal could bring an end to the largest oil supply disruption in history<\/li>\n<li class=\"text-align-justify\">However, operational and political constraints leave downside risks to Middle East outlook despite deal<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">It may be a bit quick to assume a resumption to normality but the IEA is of the view that a supply glut will return to the market soon enough.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">They expect a gradual recovery in the oil market to begin with before some normalisation that would tip the scales back in favour of a significant surplus next year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-justify\">I won&#8217;t argue that it is a reasonable assumption but again, baby steps. First, let&#8217;s see how this 60-day deal will be able to hold up. And more importantly, will any Strait of Hormuz reopening actually see a meaningful increase in traffic flows? Or will it follow the more troubling playbook below:<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World oil demand to fall by 1.1 mil bpd in 2026 amid US-Iran conflict (previous forecast 420k bpd drop) World oil supply to fall by 3.9 mil bpd in 2026 (unchanged from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-432320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=432320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432320\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=432320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=432320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=432320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}