{"id":433063,"date":"2026-07-01T21:00:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T14:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-for-june-53-3-versus-54-0-estimate-433063\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T21:00:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T14:00:36","slug":"us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-for-june-53-3-versus-54-0-estimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-for-june-53-3-versus-54-0-estimate-433063\/","title":{"rendered":"US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 53.3 versus 54.0 estimate"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior 54.0<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Last month was highest reading since May 2022<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">New orders 56.0 vs 56.8 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Production 52.2 vs 54.3 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Employment 49.7 vs 48.6 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prices paid 73.0 vs 78.0 estimate and 82.1 prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">New export orders 48.5 vs 50.6 prior <\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">imports 52.9 versus 53.0 prior.<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Inventories 42.3 versus 42.7 prior.<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Supply deliveries 57.4 versus 60.6 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Some further details: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The average over the last 12 months 50.7 with a high of 54.0 reached in May and a low of 47.9 from December 2025<\/li>\n<li>This was the sixth month the index has been above the 50.0 level which followed a 10 month period of contraction<\/li>\n<li>Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI\u00ae, four (New Orders, Production, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) were in expansion territory, one more than in May.<\/li>\n<li>The Employment Index stayed in contraction but improved compared to May. <\/li>\n<li>Five of the six largest manufacturing industries expanded in June, with Petroleum &amp; Coal Products the exception. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>From the ISM: <\/p>\n<p>A Manufacturing PMI\u00ae above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June Manufacturing PMI\u00ae indicates the overall economy grew for the 20th straight month. \u201cThe past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI\u00ae and the overall economy indicates that June reading (53.3 percent) corresponds to a 2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,\u201d says Spence.<\/p>\n<p>What Respondents are saying: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cThe conflict in Iran has impacted pricing in every category of raw materials. Especially, items that have a heavy concentration of oil in the components like our adhesives.\u201d [Chemical Products]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cContinued pressure from conflict in Middle East is resulting in a more conservative approach to capital expenditures. We are seeing an increase in consumables and services purchasing from sectors like chemical analysis, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and environmental and pharmaceutical testing.\u201d [Computer &amp; Electronic Products]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cGeneral purchasing operations are being shaped by (1) moderating but still elevated inflation, (2) higher interest rates and (3) continued policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and global trade. While overall economic growth remains resilient, it is slowing as consumer spending weakens under pressure from higher costs for energy and essential goods, reducing demand visibility and increasing cost sensitivity for buyers. Meanwhile, supply chains have stabilized compared to prior years but remain structurally complex, with trade policy volatility, geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes now ongoing cost drivers rather than temporary disruptions. Our organization continues balancing cost control with resilience, shifting sourcing strategies, tightening inventories and prioritizing supplier diversification and risk management.\u201d [Computer &amp; Electronic Products]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cRetail electronics sales seem to have stabilized to some extent. The pause in tariff changes has been welcomed the last two months, but it\u2019s only a matter of time before more confusion is introduced.\u201d [Electrical Equipment, Appliances &amp; Components]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cInput costs remain elevated across key categories, driven largely by Middle East conflict impacts and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Supplier lead times have stretched, which is influencing our inventory strategy and sourcing decisions. We are managing exposure through diversified supplier bases and contract structures that balance cost certainty with operational flexibility.\u201d [Food, Beverage &amp; Tobacco Products]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cConditions are optimistic but not yet booming for our company, even though many others, it seems, are experiencing growth. Machinery in support of defense and semiconductor manufacturing is very strong, a bright spot for our team. Industrial and medical clients are slow to purchase, focusing more on refurbished and upgraded units versus new ones.\u201d [Machinery]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cCore business remains solid in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Cautiously optimistic that a deal will be reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; concerned about ongoing ripple effects even when the strait reopens but situation is highly concerning if the strait remains closed. AI industry continues to have huge capacity consumption for critical electronics. Monitoring impact of U.S. defense industry needs on supplier capacity.\u201d [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cNo major changes from last month. With the potential ending of the Iran war, management is expecting us to go back to February pricing structures and plans since the increase in oil prices was driven by the war and not regular market influences.\u201d [Petroleum &amp; Coal Products]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cRequests from suppliers in Europe and India for \u2018energy surcharges\u2019 have stopped this past month. We\u2019re seeing continued capacity growth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), including Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea. Most suppliers are building for the longer term as geopolitical protection from all sides.\u201d [Transportation Equipment]<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe new Section 232 tariffs continue to destroy our profitability and demand as we have to raise prices to deal with this gigantic tax. Add the \u2018incentives\u2019 for our company to pivot to purchasing non-U.S. sourced material, and one realizes the total ineptitude of this tariff policy.\u201d [Transportation Equipment]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior 54.0 Last month was highest reading since May 2022 New orders 56.0 vs 56.8 prior Production 52.2 vs 54.3 prior Employment 49.7 vs 48.6 prior Prices paid 73.0 vs 78.0 estimate&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433063\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}