{"id":433499,"date":"2026-07-10T18:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T11:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-433499\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T18:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T11:40:07","slug":"how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-433499\/","title":{"rendered":"How have interest rate expectations changed after this week&#8217;s events?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px\">Rate hikes by year-end<\/p>\n<ul style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px\">\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">RBNZ:\u00a048 bps (73% probability of\u00a0rate hike\u00a0at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">ECB:\u00a037 bps (65% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Fed:\u00a032 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">BoE:\u00a027 bps (87% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">BoJ:\u00a023 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">RBA:\u00a012 bps (82% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">BoC:\u00a010 bps (90% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">SNB:\u00a06 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting)<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Last week&#8217;s market pricing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/centralbank\/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-20260703\/\" rel=\"follow\">here<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The only major events this week have been the RBNZ rate decision and the US-Iran escalation. The <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/centralbank\/rbnz-lifts-ocr-to-250-and-flags-more-hikes-as-inflation-risks-linger-20260708\/\" rel=\"follow\">RBNZ delivered a hawkish hike<\/a> signalling further increases at upcoming meetings. This saw traders bringing forward rate hike expectations with the probabilities for a back-to-back hike in September now standing around 73%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the geopolitical front, on Wednesday the US launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by bombing US bases in the region, warning of further strikes if the US continued.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">It was looking like the usual limited escalation we got used to in the past months, but everything changed when\u00a0Trump said to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey that the Memorandum of Understanding was over\u00a0for him and he didn\u2019t want to engage with Iran anymore. Oil prices surged and inflation worries returned. This triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations across the board.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">Later on, Trump walked back on his hawkish rhetoric and said that negotiations would continue, claiming that Iran called him to make a deal. That was enough to trigger a dovish repricing, taking us roughly back to pre-escalation conditions.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by flfeaa2662d774455a8d50fa77b791ed5f at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ:\u00a048 bps (73% probability of\u00a0rate hike\u00a0at the next meeting) ECB:\u00a037 bps (65% probability of no change at the next meeting) Fed:\u00a032 bps (78% probability of no change at&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}