{"id":433575,"date":"2026-07-13T16:15:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T09:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-indian-rupee-extends-losses-amid-renewed-us-iran-escalation-higher-oil-prices-and-fed-tightening-risks-433575\/"},"modified":"2026-07-13T16:15:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T09:15:25","slug":"the-indian-rupee-extends-losses-amid-renewed-us-iran-escalation-higher-oil-prices-and-fed-tightening-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-indian-rupee-extends-losses-amid-renewed-us-iran-escalation-higher-oil-prices-and-fed-tightening-risks-433575\/","title":{"rendered":"The Indian Rupee extends losses amid renewed US-Iran escalation, higher oil prices and Fed tightening risks"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has been broadly stronger since last week following renewed
\n US-Iran escalations. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to
\n a halt and oil prices started to rise considerably. <\/p>\n

This situation triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations
\n with chances for a rate hike in July rising back to 33% and the total
\n tightening in 2026 to 39 bps. This week, traders will focus on US-Iran
\n headlines, the US CPI report tomorrow and Fed Chair Warsh testimony. <\/p>\n

Given the escalation in the Middle East, an in line or soft CPI tomorrow
\n might not have the same effect it could have had without the renewed
\n geopolitical risk. Nonetheless, we could see the risk sentiment improving with
\n some minor dovish repricing. <\/p>\n

A hotter than expected CPI, on the other hand, will likely trigger strong
\n risk off across the board on higher chances of a rate hike already in July and
\n the negative growth outlook stemming from the Middle East situation. <\/p>\n

Given these risks, we can expect the market to be either rangebound or
\n leaning on the defensive side heading into tomorrow\u2019s CPI release.<\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n Rupee\u2019s slide accelerated recently following renewed US-Iran escalation. The
\n tight correlation with oil prices returned and as crude oil surged, the Rupee
\n extended the losses. <\/p>\n

Both sides will
\n likely want to de-escalate things which could offer some support to the Rupee,
\n but tomorrow we have also the US CPI report and that could take the USD\/INR
\n pair higher in case the data surprises to the upside. <\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. In the short-term, a
\n de-escalation and soft US CPI figures should give the Indian Rupee some relief.\n <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>reached the key resistance zone around the 96.10 level where we got
\n a rejection as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance
\n to position for a drop into the 94.00 handle. The buyers will need the price to
\n break above the resistance to open the door for a rally into the record highs.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we have a trendline defining the bullish structure. If we get a pullback
\n into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk
\n below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
\n look for a break to pile in for a drop into new lows.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n

\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the buyers will likely wait for a
\n pullback into the trendline or a break above the resistance. The sellers, on
\n the other hand, will need a break below the trendline to open the door for new lows.\n <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have Fed\u2019s
\n Waller speaking on the Economic Outlook which could offer some further information
\n on their reaction function. Tomorrow, we get the US CPI report and Fed Chair
\n Warsh testimony. On Wednesday, we have the US PPI report and the BoC rate
\n decision. On Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. On
\n Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
\n survey. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This article was written by flfeaa2662d774455a8d50fa77b791ed5f at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar has been broadly stronger since last week following renewed US-Iran escalations. The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a halt…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}