{"id":433597,"date":"2026-07-14T00:08:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T17:08:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/more-from-fed-waller-now-is-not-the-time-to-use-forward-guidance-433597\/"},"modified":"2026-07-14T00:08:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T17:08:54","slug":"more-from-fed-waller-now-is-not-the-time-to-use-forward-guidance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/more-from-fed-waller-now-is-not-the-time-to-use-forward-guidance-433597\/","title":{"rendered":"More from Fed Waller: Now is not the time to use forward guidance."},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>More from Fed&#8217;s Waller:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We&#8217;ve gotten persistently better and stronger job reports.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nAI may be affecting financial conditions.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nIf AI were to pop or pull back, there could be pretty big changes in financial conditions.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nI see no reason to ever be in a scarce reserves regime.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nIf we can figure out a way that banks don&#8217;t need as much reserves, I have no problem with shrinking the balance sheet accordingly.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nThere is a lot of dispute over how much you can shrink the balance sheet based on reserve demand alone.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nThe task force will think about how seriously we can reduce the balance sheet.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nI have a hard time seeing where the balance sheet at its current size is causing problems.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nNow is not the time to use forward guidance.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nNo theory in economics says withholding information is good.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nWant markets to have as much information as possible.\n<\/li>\n<li>\nSurprising people is not a good idea.<\/li>\n<li>Not clear how easy monetary policy can deal with demand on AI<\/li>\n<li>if I get another higher inflation print, I will treat that as signal not noise. <\/li>\n<li>It will be a useful signal.<\/li>\n<li>If inflation comes down in the next reading, will need a couple more that way to see that as a &#8220;signal&#8221;.<\/li>\n<li>BLS is getting more responses later in the payroll survey cycle<\/li>\n<li>Not worried about bigger BLS payroll revisions.<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment rate has traditionally been best indicator of labor market.<\/li>\n<li> Unemployment rate has been very stable\ufeff<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Speaking of inflation, adding a 20% charge on to the value of the shipment out of the Strait of Hormuz is inflationary.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by fl932d6e52a19643278e0f123bca7198f5 at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More from Fed&#8217;s Waller: We&#8217;ve gotten persistently better and stronger job reports. AI may be affecting financial conditions. If AI were to pop or pull back, there could be pretty big changes&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433597\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}