{"id":433598,"date":"2026-07-14T00:34:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T17:34:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/waller-reversed-his-stance-and-rate-hike-odds-have-risen-433598\/"},"modified":"2026-07-14T00:34:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T17:34:36","slug":"waller-reversed-his-stance-and-rate-hike-odds-have-risen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/waller-reversed-his-stance-and-rate-hike-odds-have-risen-433598\/","title":{"rendered":"Waller reversed his stance and rate hike odds have risen"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Chris Waller&#8217;s campaign for Fed Chair is increasingly looking like it was a blatant effort to tell Trump what he wanted to hear.<\/p>\n<p>Around this time last year, as he entered the race, the Fed Governor began to float dovish talking points before swinging towards a fully dovish position. He repeatedly highlighed that inflation would come down after tariffs, talked about AI deflation and focused on risks to the jobs market.<\/p>\n<p>Skip ahead to him losing the race and now it&#8217;s back to the sale &#8216;ole Waller: A predictable hawk.<\/p>\n<p>He was asked about how it&#8217;s difficult to make decisions based on one inflation print and he responded that\u00a0there can be noise in every print, but the last several months have been worse than expected. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re building off of, basically, almost six months of higher, higher, higher, higher. Another higher one? I&#8217;m gonna treat that as signal,&#8221; he said. &#8220;This next one, whichever direction it goes, it&#8217;ll be a useful signal.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The next CPI\u00a0report is due on Tuesday and the odds of a hike\u00a0this month are now up to 41%, from about 25% earlier today.<\/p>\n<p>He added that if inflation comes down this week, he will need a\u00a0&#8220;couple more&#8221; declining numbers to see that as a\u00a0signal. That highlights a stance that&#8217;s unlikley to shift back to dovish any time soon.<\/p>\n<p>The market is pricing in 41 bps in hikes through year end.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, Waller&#8217;s concerns about a weakening jobs market have been shown to be misplaced. He said uncertainty in parts of the labor market earlier this year has been resolved and the situation has seen a remarkable reversal.<\/p>\n<p>With the hawkish talk, the US dollar has crept higher and USD\/JPY touched 162.46, up 74\u00a0pips on the day.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chris Waller&#8217;s campaign for Fed Chair is increasingly looking like it was a blatant effort to tell Trump what he wanted to hear. Around this time last year, as he entered the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}