{"id":433665,"date":"2026-07-14T19:27:26","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T12:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/will-oil-prices-break-to-new-highs-433665\/"},"modified":"2026-07-14T19:27:26","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T12:27:26","slug":"will-oil-prices-break-to-new-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/will-oil-prices-break-to-new-highs-433665\/","title":{"rendered":"Will oil prices break to new highs?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Strait of Hormuz is once again sealed: first, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it was temporarily suspending traffic through the strait, and then Trump declared restoration of the naval blockade against Iran, since Tehran had violated previous agreements with Washington.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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As oil has moved back above $80 per barrel and investors have started pricing in a more hawkish Fed, gold spot prices<\/a> have moved toward $4,000, and 30-year Treasury yields have climbed above 5%. And the higher oil prices go, the more pressure they put on inflation expectations and, eventually, on overall market sentiment.<\/p>\n

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\ufeff<\/p>\n

For context, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 36.5% chance of two rate hikes by year-end, compared with 33.7% for just one.<\/p>\n

Can oil break to new highs?<\/p>\n

On the positive side, global oil stocks recovered slightly after the sharp drawdown at the start of the conflict, rising by 21 million barrels in June as more crude moved through the Strait of Hormuz again. So if the standoff does not drag on, countries should be able to handle higher oil prices<\/a> by relying on existing reserves.<\/p>\n

The key will also be what China does. During the three months of conflict, it has shown little willingness to spend heavily on additional oil purchases, with crude imports falling to 7.2 mb\/d in June, around 5 mb\/d below last year’s level, while the three-month average stood at 8.1 mb\/d, down 3.5 mb\/d from a year earlier.<\/p>\n

But if the conflict spreads, with the Houthis trying to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key shipping route through which around 12% of global trade, up to 30% of container traffic, and roughly 9% of seaborne oil shipments pass, the impact could go far beyond oil prices.<\/p>\n

Now, even if oil prices eventually come down, transport costs may not, as Donald Trump\u2019s proposed 20% fee<\/a> on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz could push global shipping costs higher, adding another source of inflation on top of existing trade tensions.<\/p>\n

That means consumers should prepare for higher prices even if oil retreats, while investors should brace for a more hawkish stance from central banks, including potentially the Fed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This article was written by fld2def7467bed4c3ea8f718551648a571 at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Strait of Hormuz is once again sealed: first, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it was temporarily suspending traffic through the strait, and then Trump declared restoration of the naval…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433665\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}