{"id":433666,"date":"2026-07-14T19:35:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T12:35:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-june-cpi-3-5-vs-3-8-expected-433666\/"},"modified":"2026-07-14T19:35:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T12:35:03","slug":"us-june-cpi-3-5-vs-3-8-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-june-cpi-3-5-vs-3-8-expected-433666\/","title":{"rendered":"US June CPI 3.5% vs 3.8% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior was 4.2%<\/li>\n<li>CPI m\/m -0.4% vs -0.1% exp<\/li>\n<li>Prior CPI was +0.5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Core readings:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Core y\/y 2.6% vs 2.8% expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior core was 2.9%<\/li>\n<li>Core m\/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior m\/m +0.2%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ahead of the report, Fed funfds futures were pricing in 9.2 bps of hikes at the July 29 meeting and 41 bps this year. After the report, those numbers have fallen sharply, though the market is also sorting through the comments from Warsh.<\/p>\n<p>The energy index fell 5.7% in July after a 3.9% rise in May and that was the largest contributor to the overall decline.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\">Key sub-components:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Owners&#8217; equivalent rent: +0.2%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Rent of primary residence: +0.1%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Motor vehicle insurance: -2.0% (after -1.7% in May)<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Airfares: +0.2% m\/m, still +26.5% y\/y<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Used cars: -0.2%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Apparel: -0.6%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Medical care: -0.1%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Lodging away from home: -2.3%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Energy m\/m: -5.7% (largest drop since April 2020)<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Gasoline m\/m: -9.7%<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Shelter m\/m: +0.1% (smallest since January 2021)<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Food m\/m: +0.2%\ufeff<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul><\/ul>\n<p>                            This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was 4.2% CPI m\/m -0.4% vs -0.1% exp Prior CPI was +0.5% Core readings: Core y\/y 2.6% vs 2.8% expected Prior core was 2.9% Core m\/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433666\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}