{"id":433860,"date":"2026-07-16T14:22:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T07:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-fails-to-sustain-the-gains-despite-soft-us-inflation-data-as-focus-remains-on-the-us-iran-crisis-433860\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T14:22:40","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T07:22:40","slug":"gold-fails-to-sustain-the-gains-despite-soft-us-inflation-data-as-focus-remains-on-the-us-iran-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-fails-to-sustain-the-gains-despite-soft-us-inflation-data-as-focus-remains-on-the-us-iran-crisis-433860\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold fails to sustain the gains despite soft US inflation data as focus remains on the US-Iran crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the past couple of days,
\n we got surprisingly soft US CPI and PPI data that should translate into a 0.2% monthly
\n increase in the Core PCE. This led to a dovish repricing in interest rate
\n expectations, with Fed rate hike probabilities for July falling to just 10%. <\/p>\n

Gold spiked to the upside following
\n the soft US CPI report but failed to sustain the gains, and the soft PPI didn\u2019t
\n help either. Overall, the risk\/reward has flipped to the upside now and the
\n US-Iran crisis in the background is what is likely holding back the precious
\n metal.<\/p>\n

Therefore, in the
\n short-term, US-Iran headlines should be more important. De-escalatory news
\n should support gold and lead to a rally into new highs. Conversely, further
\n escalation will likely weigh on the market and push prices into new lows. \u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold is still trading near the monthly lows despite the soft US CPI
\n and PPI reports. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers
\n to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into
\n the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to open
\n the door for a move into the next trendline around the 4,500 level. <\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we have
\n a minor downward trendline defining the recent bearish move. The sellers will
\n likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep
\n pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
\n price breaking higher to extend the pullback into the major downward trendline.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we have
\n a minor support zone around the 4,015 level. We can expect the buyers to step
\n in around the support with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into
\n the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
\n to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next. The red lines define
\n the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the US
\n Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the
\n University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n

\ufeff\ufeff<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 In the past couple of days, we got surprisingly soft US CPI and PPI data that should translate into a 0.2% monthly increase in the Core PCE. This led…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433860\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}