{"id":433888,"date":"2026-07-16T16:42:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T09:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-remain-skewed-to-the-upside-heading-into-the-weekend-as-us-iran-crisis-keeps-risks-elevated-433888\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T16:42:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T09:42:23","slug":"oil-prices-remain-skewed-to-the-upside-heading-into-the-weekend-as-us-iran-crisis-keeps-risks-elevated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-remain-skewed-to-the-upside-heading-into-the-weekend-as-us-iran-crisis-keeps-risks-elevated-433888\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices remain skewed to the upside heading into the weekend as US-Iran crisis keeps risks elevated"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Oil prices continue to be skewed to the upside in the
\n short-term as the renewed US-Iran crisis is keeping the geopolitical risk
\n elevated, especially heading into the weekend. The traffic in the Strait of
\n Hormuz is basically back to pre-ceasefire level after the US reimposed the
\n naval blockade and Iran followed suit. <\/p>\n

There is some good news that is keeping hopes for a
\n quick de-escalation alive and limiting the surge in oil prices. For example,
\n yesterday the Iranian
\n top negotiator said that the door for diplomacy was still open<\/a> despite the
\n recent escalation. Trump
\n said on Fox Business that Iran wants to meet and make a deal<\/a> and that he
\n would prefer to solve the dispute diplomatically. <\/p>\n

Today, on his Truth Social account, Trump announced
\n the release of an American citizen and added that the United States appreciates
\n this gesture of goodwill by Iran<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Although this is smoothing out the upside momentum in
\n crude oil, without a clear de-escalation the downside will remain limited, and
\n prices might continue to edge higher. Everyone is waiting for the ultimate TACO, but Trump’s pain threshold is likely at higher levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that crude oil broke above the key resistance zone around the 78.00 level, opening
\n the door for a move into the next major trendline around the 88.00 handle. We
\n can expect the buyers to continue to step in around the resistance-turned-support
\n with a defined risk below it to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the
\n other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support to pile
\n in for a drop back into the 68.00 level. <\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see more clearly the consolidation at the support as traders await new
\n catalysts or technical breakouts to push the price in either direction. If we
\n get a downside break, we can expect the sellers to extend the drop into the
\n minor upward trendline around the 75.00 level. If the price gets there, the
\n buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below the trendline
\n to position for a rally into the 88.00 level next.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we can
\n see the recent consolidation has formed a potential bullish pennant. The price
\n will need to break to the upside to confirm the pattern. If that happens, the
\n buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the next major trendline
\n around the 88.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will need to wait for
\n the price to fall below the support to open the door for new lows and target a
\n pullback into the minor upward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the US
\n Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the
\n University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The market focus remains on US-Iran
\n headlines. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Oil prices continue to be skewed to the upside in the short-term as the renewed US-Iran crisis is keeping the geopolitical risk elevated, especially heading into the weekend. The…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433888\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}