{"id":433894,"date":"2026-07-16T18:40:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T11:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-extends-gains-after-the-soft-us-inflation-data-but-the-focus-remains-on-us-iran-crisis-433894\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T18:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T11:40:09","slug":"eur-usd-extends-gains-after-the-soft-us-inflation-data-but-the-focus-remains-on-us-iran-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-extends-gains-after-the-soft-us-inflation-data-but-the-focus-remains-on-us-iran-crisis-433894\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD extends gains after the soft US inflation data but the focus remains on US-Iran crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar weakened across the board in the past couple of days following
\n the surprisingly soft US inflation figures. The data triggered a dovish
\n repricing in interest rate expectations with traders scaling back significantly
\n the probabilities for a rate hike in July which is now comfortably off the
\n table. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The Fed is now expected to raise interest rates in September at the
\n earliest with a fully priced hike in December. The US-Iran crisis in the
\n background is keeping inflation risks skewed to the upside, so the downside in
\n the greenback should remain limited without a clear de-escalation. <\/p>\n

EUR:<\/p>\n

On the EUR side, the June
\n inflation data showed a welcome easing for the ECB which coupled with the drop
\n in energy prices, greatly diminished the urgency for further tightening. This
\n is also what policymakers have been communicating via their recent speeches
\n which basically sealed a pause in July. <\/p>\n

The market is pricing in 43
\n bps of tightening by year-end with the next hike coming in September at the
\n earliest (80% probability). For now, the data supports a prolonged pause.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that EURUSD<\/a>finally reached the major downward
\n trendline. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined
\n risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 1.10 handle. The
\n buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to open
\n the door for a rally into the 1.16 level next. \u00a0<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have an upward trendline defining the correction. If we get a pullback into the
\n trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it
\n to keep targeting a break above the major trendline. The sellers, on the other
\n hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the support
\n to increase the bearish bets into new lows.<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013
\n 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the recent
\n bullish move. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers
\n to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The
\n sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets
\n into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the US
\n Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the
\n University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The focus will remain on
\n US-Iran headlines.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar weakened across the board in the past couple of days following the surprisingly soft US inflation figures. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433894"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433894\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}