{"id":434291,"date":"2026-07-22T11:49:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T04:49:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/heads-up-uk-cpi-report-for-june-coming-up-later-434291\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T11:49:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T04:49:51","slug":"heads-up-uk-cpi-report-for-june-coming-up-later","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/heads-up-uk-cpi-report-for-june-coming-up-later-434291\/","title":{"rendered":"Heads up: UK CPI report for June coming up later"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">There&#8217;s only one main item on the agenda in European trading today, and that is the UK CPI report for June. The key data is slated to be released at 0600 GMT.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">In terms of what to expect, here is the breakdown of the median estimates among analysts (via Reuters):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CPI +0.1% m\/m (Prior +0.2%)<\/li>\n<li>CPI +2.7% y\/y (Prior +2.8%)<\/li>\n<li>Core CPI +0.2% m\/m (Prior +0.3%)<\/li>\n<li>Core CPI +2.5% y\/y (Prior +2.6%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">As always, the ones to watch are the annual estimates and they are expected to show some marginal easing compared to May.\u00a0The drop is mostly going to be tied to lower petrol and diesel prices at the pump, which will affect headline annual inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Looking to core annual inflation, the balance of risks are skewed to the downside this time around. Barclays points to &#8220;transport services and package holidays and hotels being the key<br \/>\ncomponents contributing to the deceleration&#8221;, while other analysts are pointing to volatility surrounding the likes of airfares as having a potential negative drag on the number here.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">All in all though, the report should not have too much impact on the BOE outlook. That especially as things will have to be recalibrated once more to account for renewed tensions from the US-Iran conflict. As such, the BOE will not be able to take in too much comfort from the price developments today. There will still be risks to the outlook that need to be watched carefully.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">For a better overview, here are what analysts are estimating for core annual inflation:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Barclays: +2.45% y\/y (rounded to +2.4% y\/y)<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs: +2.5% y\/y<\/li>\n<li>ING: +2.5% y\/y<\/li>\n<li>Llyods: +2.4% y\/y<\/li>\n<li>Morgan Stanley: +2.49% y\/y<\/li>\n<li>Nomura: +2.3% y\/y<\/li>\n<li>UBS: +2.47% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Looking to the months ahead, ING notes that: &#8220;Inflation is set to rise in July as household energy bill hikes kick in, but we still expect it to<br \/>\npeak below 3.5% this summer.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">As things stand, traders are pricing in ~40 bps of rate hikes from the BOE by year-end. And the first full 25 bps rate hike is only priced in for November at this stage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s only one main item on the agenda in European trading today, and that is the UK CPI report for June. The key data is slated to be released at 0600 GMT.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-434291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}