{"id":434375,"date":"2026-07-23T09:03:39","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T02:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/australia-jobs-smash-forecasts-keeping-rbas-august-hike-door-very-slightly-open-434375\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T09:03:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T02:03:39","slug":"australia-jobs-smash-forecasts-keeping-rbas-august-hike-door-very-slightly-open","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/australia-jobs-smash-forecasts-keeping-rbas-august-hike-door-very-slightly-open-434375\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia jobs smash forecasts, keeping RBA&#8217;s August hike door (very slightly) open"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The blowout employment number and jump in participation gives the RBA scope to keep its hawkish bias alive without committing to actual policy tightening, and markets reacted accordingly, with the Australian dollar jumping and short term yields rising around 5bp on the data. The move in the yield reflects a modest repricing of hike risk into the August 11-12 meeting, though the quarterly average unemployment rate of 4.4%, still above the RBA&#8217;s own 4.2% forecast, alongside underemployment and underutilisation both sitting at multi-month highs, complicates a clean hawkish read. On balance, another 25bp hike in August looks a lower probability outcome than the report&#8217;s headline strength might suggest, given the RBA has already held steady in June after three consecutive hikes earlier in the year. Still, the scale of the beat is likely to keep a hike priced as a live possibility until closer to the meeting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<br \/>\nA blowout June jobs report has AUD and yields jumping, keeping an August RBA hike alive even if it&#8217;s not the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\" class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Employment rose 76.3k in June, the strongest gain in over 12 months and far above the 15k expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, matching expectations<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Full time employment rose 29.3k and part time employment rose 47.0k<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Participation rate rose to 67.0% from 66.7%, aided by a jump in 55 to 64 year old participation<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Quarterly average unemployment of 4.4% sits above the RBA&#8217;s 4.2% forecast, while underemployment at 6.5% and underutilisation at 10.9% hit 22-month and 54-month highs respectively<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">AUD jumped and the three year yield rose around 5bp on the data, with the next RBA meeting on August 11 and 12<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nAustralia&#8217;s labour market delivered its strongest employment gain in more than a year in June, smashing expectations and keeping the door open to a further Reserve Bank rate hike even as several details in the report complicate that picture. Employment rose 76.3k, far exceeding forecasts of 15k and building on an upwardly revised May gain, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, in line with expectations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Full time employment rose 29.3k and part time employment increased 47.0k, while the participation rate jumped to 67.0% from 66.7%, a move driven largely by a surge in participation among 55 to 64 year olds. Hours worked rose 0.2% on the month and 0.5% over the quarter. On the surface, the report looks like a solidly strong outcome that reinforces the RBA&#8217;s hawkish bias without forcing its hand. Some of the strength reflects a larger than usual number of people who were waiting to start a new job in May, a factor that flattered the headline number, while the jump in participation similarly reflects a specific cohort effect rather than a broad based shift.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Even so, the quarterly average unemployment rate of 4.4% remains above the RBA&#8217;s own forecast of 4.2%, and following data revisions, both the underemployment rate at 6.5% and the underutilisation rate at 10.9% now sit at 22-month and 54-month highs respectively, pointing to more slack beneath the surface than the headline strength suggests. Taken together with the stronger employment print, however, the RBA could still conclude the labour market retains some underlying momentum.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The<a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/aud-usd-has-jumped-higher-after-the-strong-jobs-report-biggest-job-gain-in-a-year\" rel=\"follow\"> Australian dollar jumped on the release<\/a> and short term yields moved higher, as markets adjusted to the prospect of continued RBA hawkishness. The central bank raised rates by 25bp at each of its first three meetings this year before holding steady at its June meeting, and the next decision falls on August 11 and 12. While this report keeps a further hike in play, the combination of a June pause, elevated underemployment and a quarterly unemployment rate still running above the RBA&#8217;s forecast makes another move at the August meeting look a less likely outcome than the headline number alone might imply.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The blowout employment number and jump in participation gives the RBA scope to keep its hawkish bias alive without committing to actual policy tightening, and markets reacted accordingly, with the Australian dollar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-434375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434375\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}