{"id":434551,"date":"2026-07-24T06:40:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T23:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/complacency-fades-as-analysts-warn-oil-crisis-now-graver-than-march-434551\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T06:40:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T23:40:15","slug":"complacency-fades-as-analysts-warn-oil-crisis-now-graver-than-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/complacency-fades-as-analysts-warn-oil-crisis-now-graver-than-march-434551\/","title":{"rendered":"Complacency fades as analysts warn oil crisis now graver than March"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The argument here is that the market is underpricing risk relative to the underlying supply picture, given that Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb and the CPC terminal are simultaneously constrained in a way that did not apply in March. A near six dollar front month Brent backwardation points to acute near term tightness, reinforced by crude inventories running some 1.5 billion barrels below their late February level and a maxed out US refining system holding product stocks low. If this thesis proves correct, the risk skews toward further upside surprises in crude and products rather than the retracement many traders may still be positioned for.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">OPEC opening the taps, but cna it get to market:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/oil-opec-s-slow-unwind-continues-even-as-a-second-chokepoint-closes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">OIL &#8211; Opec+&#8217;s slow unwind continues even as a second chokepoint closes<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nWith three chokepoints choked at once and inventories well below February levels, analysts argue the market has not caught up to how much worse this crisis has become.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\" class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">The Strait of Hormuz has closed again, with less dark fleet activity moving through it than ten days earlier<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Iranian crude exports are effectively under blockade<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Bab el Mandeb has emerged as a new front in the Iran US conflict, cutting off additional Saudi barrels<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Diplomatic room to de escalate is seen as narrower than before the prior memorandum of understanding<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Kazakh crude exports via the CPC terminal have halted following Ukraine&#8217;s vessel strike campaign in the Black Sea<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">About 1.5 million barrels a day of Russian product exports are missing, with the disruption expected to persist given recurring Ukrainian drone strikes<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Global crude inventories are roughly 1.5 billion barrels lower than on 28 February<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">US product inventories remain on the low side while the domestic refining system is running at full capacity<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Brent has moved back into a front month backwardation of about six dollars<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">The market is shifting from a products only crisis, which is seen as durable, back into a combined crude and product crisis<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nThe current oil supply crisis has become considerably more dangerous than the one markets faced in March, even as broader sentiment remains largely complacent about the risks involved. A rare alignment of disruptions across multiple critical chokepoints at once, a combination it says was not present earlier in the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Central to the argument is the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that so called dark fleet tanker activity through the strait has thinned noticeably compared with just ten days ago, suggesting even the workarounds that had been sustaining some flow are now diminishing. Iranian crude exports are described as effectively blockaded, while Bab el Mandeb has become a fresh front in the wider Iran US conflict, stripping additional Saudi barrels from the market on top of the Hormuz disruption. Also argues that diplomatic space to resolve the standoff has narrowed compared with the period before the prior memorandum of understanding, implying fewer near term off ramps than the market experienced earlier in the crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The disruption is not confined to the Middle East. Kazakh crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal have been halted following Ukraine&#8217;s campaign of vessel strikes in the Black Sea, removing another significant volume from global supply. Separately, around 1.5 million barrels a day of Russian refined product exports are currently missing, a gap it expects to persist given the recurring nature of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">On inventories, global crude stocks are now roughly 1.5 billion barrels below where they stood on 28 February, a substantial drawdown that leaves considerably less buffer against further shocks. In the United States, product inventories remain on the lower side even as the domestic refining system operates at full capacity, limiting the ability to offset losses elsewhere. The resulting tightness is reflected in the futures curve, with Brent crude moving back into a front month backwardation of about six dollars, a level consistent with an acutely undersupplied physical market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Taken together, this looks like a turning point: what had been primarily a products crisis, one  expected to persist regardless of how the broader conflict evolves, is now converging back into a combined crude and product crisis, a more severe configuration than markets saw during the March phase of the war and one not yet fully reflected in trader positioning or price action.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The argument here is that the market is underpricing risk relative to the underlying supply picture, given that Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb and the CPC terminal are simultaneously constrained in a way&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-434551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}